Design And Implement Of Credit Risk Analysis And Early Warning System

The financial globalization and freedom aggravate the risk of financial industrial.Internationally,since 2012 the global banking non-performing loan ratio has risen sharply.At the end of 2015,it has reached to 4.3%.In the domestic,at the end of 2016,the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks reached RMB1,512.2 billion,and the non-performing loan ratio rose to 1.74%,which was higher than that of the third quarter of RMB149.39 billion.The above data was released by the CBRC "Main Supervision Indicators of Commercial Banks",which indicates that the non-performing loan rate reaching the highest level in nearly three years.Throughout the world,the rise in non-performing loan rate highlights the financial industry risk.The risking of financial industry is clustering under the background of slowing macroeconomic growth,and further illustrates the necessity and urgency of credit risk analysis and early warning research.In order to alleviate the continuous increase of nonperforming loans and prevent credit risk,we put forward the research and realization of credit risk analysis and early warning system,analyzes the credit risk based on large data,analyzes the root causes of the continuous increase of non-performing loans and prevent the occurring of non-performing loans.For the realization of credit risk analysis and early warning platform,we divide the project into three stages,which include demand analysis,design and realization.In the stage of demand analysis,we combining with the situation of domestic and abroad,and find the deficiencies of existing system and the optimization point needed to improve.We also sort out the demands of the platform in the method,process,business and other aspects.In the stage of system design,there are three aspects needed to complete,which include frame design,database design and the key method.In terms of frame design,we adopt SSH frame to make the system more clear and maintain convenient.For database design,we determine the relationship among factors and update the current risk indicator after the analysis of multi-source data,which is more efficiency to achieve the design of database.For the system implementation,we divide two module to achieve and test.The whole system is divided into two parts: before loan management module and the after loan management module.The final test results show that the system satisfies the demanding of practicality,realism and ease of use.The system can effectively reduce the credit risk,timely recovery of losses.To sum up,based on the current situation of credit risk and the shortcomings of the existing system and the analysis of multi-source large data,we use advanced data analysis technology to build a reasonable and effective system framework to achieve credit risk analysis and early warning system.Improve the comprehensive analysis of credit risk forecasting ability and reduce the dependence of traditional analysis methods on the staff,flexible response to market changes and effectively reduce the risk of early warning of the lag.