Will The Aging Of Population Hinder The High-quality Development Of Regional Manufacturing?

Aging is a profound process of changing the age structure of the population,which has a profound impact on all aspects of human economy and society.This is especially true for China,where adverse impacts such as the disappearance of the demographic dividend as the population ages,the decline in the working-age population,the decline in the overall labor participation rate,and rising labor costs pose serious challenges to the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.Will the aging population hinder the high-quality development of regional manufacturing? What impact will it have on manufacturing? Considering the rich connotation of the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,it not only manifests itself in structural optimization and upgrading,but also includes the total factor productivity that reflects the kinetic energy conversion innovation drive,and the cost bonus that reflects quality and efficiency.Therefore,this paper chooses to answer from the three aspects of manufacturing structure upgrade,total factor productivity and cost bonus.Using the micro-database of Chinese industrial enterprises,the total factor productivity and cost bonus at the enterprise level are calculated first,and then weighted and aggregated into corresponding Regional industry-level indicators are matched with regional macro-level data to form empirical panel data.Finally,according to the two types of model settings,the effects of the aging population on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure,overall weighted TFP and cost bonus are investigated in turn.The results found that:(1)Aging has a significant and stable positive effect on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure characterized by various indicators.Aging has brought many adverse impacts on the development of my country's manufacturing industry,but it can also become an opportunity for transformation and upgrading under certain conditions,making the status of capital and technology-intensive industries and mid-to-high-end manufacturing industries in the manufacturing industry higher.In the relationship between aging and manufacturing structure upgrading,the intermediary effect test found that the labor quantity effect and human capital accumulation effect played a positive intermediary role,and the labor force adaptability effect played a negative intermediary role.(2)Aging has a significant inhibitory effect on total factor productivity in manufacturing.Under the TFP calculated by various weighting methods,aging is shown to hinder the growth of manufacturing TFP,which is consistent with the existing empirical research on the relationship between the age of the labor force and the enterprise TFP and regional TFP.The intermediary effect test shows that aging weakens its inhibitory effect on TFP growth through labor quantity effect and human capital accumulation effect,and partly suppresses manufacturing TFP growth through labor productivity effect,but this article only captures part of the intermediary effect,aging on technological innovation The impact of entrepreneurship may be the key to explaining this difference.(3)Unlike the suppression of manufacturing TFP,aging has a positive effect on manufacturing cost markup.The intensification of aging makes some enterprises tighten labor cost constraints and difficult to maintain low-price competition.They have to turn to quality competition,and cost bonuses are positively related to product quality.In addition,aging will force the manufacturing structure to upgrade,and the upgraded industry Generally can obtain higher added value and cost bonus.Therefore,under the dual effects of the transformation of corporate competition strategies and the upgrading of industrial structure,aging has instead increased the cost bonus.(4)The regression results by region show that the effect of aging on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure and TFP suppression in the central and western regions is greater than that in the eastern region,and the effect of increasing the cost bonus is smaller than that in the eastern region;The inhibitory effect of chemical industry on industry TFP and the increase in cost increase are greater in labor-intensive industries and low-end manufacturing,but weaker in capital and technology-intensive industries and mid-to-high-end manufacturing.There are several policy implications for how to seize the opportunities brought about by the aging of the population and deal with its adverse impact on the manufacturing TFP:(1)Further promote the reform of labor marketization,reduce institutional barriers related to employment restrictions,and promote the workforce Orderly flow.(2)Exploit the population quality dividend,give full play to the accumulation effect of human capital,increase the investment in education and skill training of the government and individuals,and enhance the human capital and technological content in the development of manufacturing.(3)Encourage technological innovation and improve resource allocation efficiency to weaken the inhibitory effect of aging manufacturing TFP.(4)Give full play to the economic advantages of major countries,and promote the transfer of factors and industrial transformation and upgrading that match the differences in regional age structure gradients.