Effects Of Aging Population On Housing Prices

Since the reform of the housing system,the real estate market in our country has developed quickly,and the rise in housing price has deviated from the actual purchasing power of residents.Due to the implementation of family planning policies,the aging of China's population has become increasingly prominent,and the demographic dividend will gradually disappear,which will have a significant impact on socio-economic development and the real estate market.The level of aging is often intertwined with population movements,which together affect the temporal and spacial characteristics of housing prices.In order to deeply explore the relationship between aging and housing prices,based on the growth of immigrants,we will divide population aging into indigenous and immigrants.Through a comprehensive understanding of the mechanism of aging on housing prices,we can provide important theoretical basis for the longterm adjustment of China's population policy and the sustainable development of the real estate market.First of all,this thesis combs and analyzes the development process of China's real estate market and the current situation and characteristics of population aging.We found that population aging will have a certain impact on housing prices and have regional differences.On this basis,we combined the life cycle theory,Over Lapping Generation Models,and a general equilibrium model of supply and demand to theoretically analyze the relationship between aging of indigenous and immigrants and housing prices.Subsequently,we constructed empirical models based on the theoretical model,and selected data from 70 large and medium cities from 2011 to 2017 for empirical testing.The results show that indigenous aging is significantly negatively correlated with housing prices,and has significant regional heterogeneity,which has the strongest negative effect on housing prices in first-tier cities.The impact of the aging of immigrants is negatively related to housing prices,which is not in line with expectations.The reason for this phenomenon is that it is too difficult for elderly immigrants to buy houses and the actual purchase capacity is not enough to bear the high housing prices.With the aging of indigenous and immigrants,it will have a negative impact on housing prices,but the impact of aging of the immigrant population on housing prices is not significant.Finally,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the research results.The government should speed up the improvement of the pension mechanism,medical care and housing policies for migrant elderly people.At the same time,the government needs to strengthen the early-warning monitoring mechanism of aging on housing price fluctuations,and the elderly population should be guided reasonably.