Study On The Effects Of Demographic Age Structure On Economic Growth In Guangdong

Since the reform and opening up,Guangdong's economy has grown rapidly.The gross domestic product of Guangdong Province accounts for 10%of the nation,and the economic growth rate has been at a high level for many years.However,the demographic age structure in Guangdong Province has changed at the same time.On the one hand,the demographic age structure in Guangdong Province is gradually aging.On the other hand,in recent years there have been migrant workers returning to their hometowns.Under this background,it's important to have a comprehensive and accurate understanding of the economic growth of Guangdong Province by exploring the changing trend of demographic age structure in Guangdong and studying the mechanism of the demographic age structure on the impact of economic growth in Guangdong.In the existing studies on the factors affecting Guangdong's economic growth,many scholars attributed Guangdong's economic growth to such factors as the reform and opening up policy and trade,while seldom concerned about the impact of demographic age structure on economic growth in Guangdong Province.Under the background of the dramatic changes in demographic age structure in Guangdong Province and the back-flow of migrant workers,if we ignore the impact of population factors on the economic growth of Guangdong Province,we will not be able to fully understand the reasons for the economic growth in Guangdong Province.Therefore,this dissertation focus on the impact of demographic age structure on economic growth in Guangdong Province.Based on the theoretical analysis of demographic age structure and economic growth,this dissertation examines the effects of changes in the proportion of working-age population and the proportion of population at prime ages among the working-age population on the economic growth of Guangdong Province.This dissertation introduces the proportion of the working-age population in the Solow model and expands it.We use the population data of 88 counties of Guangdong Province in 1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 to study the influence of population age structure of Guangdong Province on economic growth.During our study period 1995-2015,one percentage-point increase in the proportion of the working-age population would lead to a 0.06%increase in the actual per-capita GDP,and one percentage-point increase in the proportion of population at prime ages among the working-age population,would lead to a 0.02%increase in the actual per-capita GDP.In addition,during the period of our study,the evolution of demographic age structure contributed percentage points to the economic growth of Guangdong Province,of which the working-age population contributed 2.9 percentage points and the proportion of population at prime ages among the working-age population contributed 0.09 percentage points.In order to examine more deeply the effect mechanism of the demographic age structure on economic growth,we use decomposition analysis to conclude that the demographic age structure of Guangdong Province promotes economic growth mainly through total factor productivity and human capital.