Research On Prediction Model Of The Death Toll Of Road Traffic Accidents Based On Accident Causation

China is the largest developing country in the world.Compared with the developed countries,the fatal rate of road traffic accidents in China has remained high.The potential road traffic accidents seriously threaten the safety of life and property of the public.This paper established a road traffic accident death toll prediction model,and analyzed the causes of road traffic accidents and other contents,which will directly serve for the road traffic safety management.It has theoretical value and practical significance for formulating traffic safety management measures,reducing road traffic accident deaths and improving road traffic safety level.Based on this,this paper has done the following work:Firstly,this paper summarized the current research status at home and abroad in the field and related fields of road traffic accident fatalities prediction and analysis of causes of road traffic accidents.It introduced the main existing researches of the theory of causes of accident,prediction methods and prediction models.It elaborated the related concepts of road traffic accidents,death toll in road traffic accidents and road traffic system and it expounded the conditions,characteristics,advantages and functions of the Grey theory prediction mode.Secondly,it studied the cause and mechanism of the death toll in road traffic accidents and put forward some management suggestions based on quantitative statistics and qualitative analysis;Through the study of the mechanism of the accident,it explored the law of interaction between the causes of the internal and external systems of the road traffic system at the time of the death accident,and further studied the logical relationship between the causes of the accident.By avoiding and eliminating the effect of causes in the process of accident mechanism,it avoided death accidents in the road traffic.Thirdly,this paper had selected 38 primary causation variables,and through the analysis of the correlation between the independent variables and the dependent variables and between the independent variables,it selected 11 variables to carry out the analysis of the Grey correlation in the end.The data column of causation factor was selected as the variable sequence,and the data column of death toll of road trafficaccidents was selected as the characteristic sequence.According to the sort of correlation degree size,it established the GM(1,N)model by sorting data in descending order step by step,and it analyzed the residual error and error analysis to obtain the optimal GM(1,7)prediction model for the death toll of road traffic accidents.Fourthly,the theory and method of Markov were applied in this paper to optimize the predicted value of the optimal prediction model GM(1,7)of the death toll of road traffic accidents.It turned out that the predicted value of the optimized model had a higher fitting of the actual value,and the Markov optimization process further improved the prediction accuracy of the GM(1,7)model.Therefore,it applied the GM(1,7)model optimized by Markov to predict the death toll of the road traffic accidents of China,which was beneficial to improve the accuracy of the prediction results and to increase the applicability of the model,and it provided a more effective way for the overall grasp of the development trend of the death toll of road traffic accidents of China.