Determination Of Economic Growth Cycle In Yunnan Province And The Whole Country And Its Linkage Research

Economic cycle research has always been one of the classic topics in macroeconomics.The new economic environment has led to the emergence of new economic cycle characteristics,and the focus of economic cycle research has been constantly changing.Under the joint action of multiple factors,the characteristics of regional economic cycle fluctuation are not exactly the same as those of overall economic cycle fluctuation.This problem will increase the opportunity for cross-regional arbitrage and increase the difficulty of government macro-control.For this reason,the article combs the relevant literature of economic cycle theory and empirical analysis.In this paper,the development and evolution of the economic cycle theory are introduced,the measures of the economic cycle are summarized,the technical means for determining the synchronization of the economic cycle are summarized,and the influencing factors and feasible analysis models of the economic cycle linkage are summarized.The article believes that the study and analysis of the economic growth cycle is not only conducive to the steady growth of the residents' consumption level,but also can prevent cross-regional arbitrage behavior,and can provide theoretical basis for the formulation of macroeconomic policies.Taking Yunnan province as an example,the article measured its economic growth cycle and analyzed its linkage with the National economic growth cycle.Before the specific analysis,the data are processed in this paper.The processing process includes the elimination of price factors,data forecasting and seasonal adjustment.Among them,the price factors are excluded from the base period of 2005 and the data prediction is carried out using the ARIMA model.Seasonal adjustment using the X-12 method.Then,the article measured the economic growth cycle of Yunnan province and the whole country by BP filtration method.The results showedthat during the observation time,Yunnan province and the National economic growth experienced two complete cycles,with an average duration of 21 quarters and 23.5quarters respectively.The results show that the average duration of the growth period in Yunnan Province is shorter,the frequency is higher,the amplitude is smaller,the convex expansion and the convex contraction are smaller.The average duration of the National economic growth cycle is longer,the frequency is lower,the amplitude is larger,the concave expansion,and the convex contraction.The similarities between the two are mainly reflected in the development trend: the duration of periodic fluctuations tends to become longer,and the amplitude of the contraction phase gradually narrows.On the basis of successfully measuring the economic growth cycle,the article also uses the time difference correlation coefficient method to determine the linkage relationship between Yunnan Province and the National economic growth cycle,and uses the C-M synchronization index to measure the synchronization of the two after removing the factors affecting the linkage.The influence factors of this linkage are analyzed,and the results show that:(1)The fluctuation of the economic growth cycle in Yunnan Province lags behind one quarter of the country.(2)This linkage relationship is mainly affected by differences in consumption demand,foreign trade dependence,fiscal policy coordination,industrial structure differences,and the intensity of the previous linkage.(3)The greater the difference in consumption demand and the stronger the synchronization relationship in the early stages,the greater the possibility of synchronous changes in the linkage relationship between Yunnan Province and the current period of the National economic growth cycle;The greater the difference between the primary industry,the secondary industry,and the foreign trade dependence,the worse the coordination of fiscal policies,and the less simultaneous fluctuations between Yunnan Province and the National economic growth cycle.