The Impact Of The Change Of Population Age Structure And The Reform Of Endowment Insurance On International Capital Flow

With the reducing of demographic dividend,China has to face the problem of aging population and pension as a populous country.In recent years,the change of the population age structure and the reform of endowment insurance have became two hot issues of economic research.On the theoretical front,the age structure of our population tends to be aging,which will result in a decrease in the labor.With the capital constant,the capital-labor ratio increases,and the capital rate of return decreases relatively,which results in international capital outflow.Meanwhile,population aging will reduce public savings(pensions,medical expenses)and private savings(income,consumption smoothing),and the same to the investment demand.The difference of savings and investment will lead to the unbalance of current account,and result in the international capital flows.From the perspective of endowment insurance,on the one hand,pension portfolio is an indispensable part of a basket of assets,which is substituted with other finicial assets.So it might inhibit the savings,especially the preventive savings;on the other hand,the systen of pension accumulation is changing from the PAYG system to the partial accumulation system,which increases the current savings.Firstly,the paper analyses the mechanism how the change of age structure and reform of endowment insurance impact the international capital flows and constructes the OLG model with change of age structure and reform of endowment insurance to discuss the influence direction of the two on international capital flows.Secondly,the paper analyzes the panel datas in 43 countries from 2007 to 2014 by DIF-GMM method,which draws the conclusions that:the elder dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on international capital flows,while the youth denpendency ratio has a significant positive impact.The size of pension fund also has a significant positive impact on international capital flows.Finally,according to the results,the paper predicts the future trend of international capital flows,and put forward some policy suggestions.