Study On The Intergenerational Support Effect Of Basic Pension Insurance On Fertility

Since the implementation of the universal two-child policy,the fertility rate has declined instead of rising and the trend of population aging is more and more obvious.The relaxation of fertility policy provides an opportunity to study the influence of micro-level factors on fertility.In the current time of ageing and fewer children,this paper explores the intergenerational transmission mechanism of basic pension insurance on fertility from the perspective of intergenerational support,with a view to "promoting the cohesion of the fertility policy and related economic and social supporting policies" and putting forward exploratory ideas.The main work of this paper includes:First,on the basis of combing existing studies at home and abroad,this paper,from the perspective of intergenerational support,constructed the intergenerational transmission mechanism of basic pension insurance on fertility from the two paths of income effect and care effect.First,the paternal basic pension insurance means that the income of the elderly increases,reducing the supply of labor and increasing leisure for the elderly,which makes it possible to provide take-care for the next generation.This paper calls it the "care effect".Second,having basic pension insurance can not only reduce the burden on the children,but also provide a material basis for the downward economic support,which this paper calls "income effect".Secondly,based on the data of Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2016,this paper adopts multiple linear regression,Logit regression and Heckman two-step method to estimate the effect of paternal basic pension insurance on fertility,and analyzes the structural differences of this effect in different groups.And the care effect and income effect were examined.In the robustness test part,on the one hand,the Heckman two-step method is used to correct the sample error.On the other hand,the ideal number of children is selected as the explained variable to investigate the robustness of the intergenerational support effect of paternal basic pension insurance on fertility by eliminating the influence of the change of fertility policy.Finally,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results,the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to promote the effective connection between fertility policy and basic pension policy.The empirical results of this paper show that parents' participation in basic pension insurance has a significant positive effect on fertility.If at least one parent or in-laws participates in the social basic pension insurance,the number of births will increase by 0.2.when the father has participated in the basic pension insurance,the amount of family pension has a negative effect on fertility.And women over the age of 30,with a lower level of high school education,a middle level of household per capita income were more significantly affected.The empirical results of this paper show that paternal participation in basic pension insurance helps increase fertility,and this intergenerational support effect mainly works through positive care effect.Therefore,from the aspects of expanding the coverage of basic pension insurance,improving family-friendly policies and improving the care system for infants and children,this paper provides countermeasures and suggestions for "promoting the connection between fertility policy and relevant economic and social policies".The research in this paper is helpful to understand the mechanism behind the decline of fertility rate in China,and provides exploratory ideas for promoting the effective connection between fertility policy and pension policy and alleviating the impact of fewer children and aging.