Research On PPP Project Pricing Of Institutional Pension Based On Risk Sharing

In recent years,the aging of population has become a serious challenge in China.According to the definition of aging society,China has entered the aging society at the end of the 20 th century.In order to solve these problems,our government has launched a series of policies and measures to encourage PPP model to be introduced into pension projects.The investment payback period of institutional pension PPP project is long,which will be affected by many risk factors in decision-making,construction,operation and other stages.Each risk factor will affect the cost,revenue,concession period and other pricing factors,so it is necessary to identify the risk factors in each stage,so as to manage the risk more effectively,and then determine the cost,revenue and other pricing factors reasonably.In this context,this paper studies the pricing of institutional pension PPP project.This paper is divided into three parts: the first part is to determine the key risk factors and risk sharing scheme of institutional pension PPP project;the second part is to analyze the impact of risk factors on pricing and build a pricing two-level programming model;the third part is empirical case analysis.First of all,33 risk factors are preliminarily identified through literature research,which are divided into six risk categories: Law,economy,decision-making,construction,operation and pension market.The importance degree and probability of risk factors are investigated through questionnaire,and the risk factors with the cumulative contribution rate of the first 80% are determined as key risk factors and key risks are determined by Pareto principle The sharing plan of factors is determined by AHP.Then,the influence of key risk factors on cost,income,concession period and occupancy rate pricing factors is analyzed,and a two-tier pricing planning model of institutional pension PPP project is constructed.The upper target function is the maximization of social benefits,the decision variable is government subsidies,and the lower target function is society Finally,taking Fengye Zhenghong nursing home of Heze City as an example,we calculate the risk cost,risk income,risk concession period and risk occupancy rate respectively,and substitute them into the double-layer programming model,and use genetic algorithm to solve the problem.We can find that the bed price is slightly higher than the bed price in the feasibility study report,the government subsidy and the government subsidy in the feasibility study report The price is basically flat.On the whole,the bilevel programming model can provide theoretical reference for the early pricing decision of institutional pension PPP project.