The Decision Making Of Major Freeway Emergency Based On Scenario Evolution

With the rapid development of China's freeways and the dramatic increase in car ownership,the freeway has gradually become an important channel of transportation in China.The frequent occurrence of freeway emergencies will lead to the loss of people and property,especially major emergencies,which are often accompanied by a series of derivative events,which requires an investigation of the law of event evolution from the perspective of the scenario,so as to make the most efficient emergency decisions in the shortest possible time based on the scenario of the evolution of emergencies.Therefore,scientific,efficient and dynamic emergency decision-making based on scenario evolution for major freeway emergencies is the key to determining the direction of events and reducing their losses and impacts.In this paper,we study the scenario-based dynamic emergency decision making process of freeway major emergencies from the perspective of scenario evolution,using highway major emergencies as the research object.First,we analyzed the elements of the emergency decision scenarios,used Chinese participle techniques to extract the elements of the scenarios in the historical cases,determined their relationships and studied the laws of event scenario evolution from a timeline perspective,and then explored the path of scenario evolution from both "optimistic" and "pessimistic" directions.On this basis,a Bayesian network is introduced,a dynamic contingency decision model for scenario evolution is constructed,a Bayesian network diagram for scenario evolution is established,the nodes and probabilities of the network are determined,and Ge Nle software is applied to calculate the probability of the scenario and complete the reasoning for the scenario evolution;then,the similarity of scenarios is calculated using the fused semantic similarity method to match similar scenarios for the key scenarios developed,and similar scenarios are studied and revised to find their "scenario-response" contingency decision ideas and solutions.Finally,this paper selects "Jinji Expressway Tunnel 3.1 Special Major Road Traffic Hazardous Chemical Explosion Incident" for model validation,builds a scenario bank of major freeway hazardous chemical emergencies,studies the dynamic scenario-based emergency decision-making process of the target case,and compares the actual emergency decision-making scenario of the target case with the emergency decision-making ideas generated by the model in this paper to prove the effectiveness of the model.This paper proposes a dynamic emergency decision model for the scenario evolution of major freeway emergencies,which can not only realize the reuse of historical case information,enrich the emergency decision basis,and lay the foundation for the development of "scenario-response" emergency plans and simulation scenarios in the freeway emergency field,but also effectively make up for the lack of quantitative research in emergency management,and optimize the scenario similarity calculation method by integrating semantic similarity.