| The agricultural sector,like other economic activities,also suffers from multiple problems on the globe,especially in developing and low-income countries,despite these problems,Afghanistan's agriculture has been severely dropped down due to long period of war and political instability for the past three decades.Mainly,agricultural problems include technological,institutional,production,market,human resource,lack of credit,and infrastructures;however,the environmental risk is also hindering in achieving a costly rate of recurrence.Therefore,the agriculture sector of Afghanistan faces with many challenges in general,that have directly affected the production of crops.Especially wheat crop production,because of its better importance for the population due to the prior source of food in Afghanistan.Thus,the impact of war on agriculture has great potential to decelerate the economic growth of a country that may easily augment the poverty level in an area.For keeping in mind this burning issue,the study was staged to determine the impact of war on farm income,as a result of various agricultural problems faced by the farmers of Paktia province,Afghanistan.And the prediction of the wheat production in future(2018-2030)years at the root period of(2002-2017),to estimate the self-sufficiency for increasing population in Afghanistan.The first step of the existing study has empirically investigated the impact of war and military operation on the farmers' farm income.The study was done out by collecting data from 256 farmers in two districts(Gardez and Zurmat)in Paktia province,Afghanistan,which have homogenous traditions,climate,and agricultural aspects.The only difference between these two districts is war and military operation in Zurmat district and vice versa.The data were collected and gathered randomly from both areas.As a result of the models revealed that Age,education,size of land,production cost,marketing,and infrastructure facilities have a positive and significant impact on farm income.Subsequently,extension services,farm experience,other sources of income,the purpose of cultivation(orchard & non-orchard),and household size are also negative and statistically significant that severely affected by war and military operation persuaded by insecurity.Also,the income of farmers owning orchards was more than the farmers whom was not owning orchards in these districts.From the result it is revealed that in all three models,the region without war and military operation has a significant positive association with farmers' farm income.Under farmers' social characteristics model,an area where there is no war and military operation induced by insecurity,their farm income is 4% per jerib more than the districts where there was war and military operation.In the farmers,economic characteristics model,the farmers' farm income in Gardez district was 3% per jerib more than Zurmat's district farmers,while under the farmers' socio-economic determinant model,the difference between both districts was 2.6% per jerib.Hence it is deduced that war and military operation induced by insecurity has adverse effects on the farmers' farm income in Zurmat district.Further,the second step of the study is the production of major crop(wheat)in Afghanistan which is an insufficient for domestic consumption due to affected by war.Therefore,the Afghan's government is relying on foreign markets to cover the gap between domestic production and consumption.So,the study aims were to evaluate the present situation of wheat production,yield and consumption in Afghanistan,as well as to understand the farmers' perceptions and attitudes towards the problems facing them.Thus,by applying simple regression analysis in estimating the general trends to determine the productive and economic indicators of the Wheat crop.Moreover,we used Analysis of variance(One Way ANOVA)to understand the farmers' perceptions and attitudes towards the problems facing them.The results divulge that wheat productivity averaged is 1.77 tons/hectare,and ranged between a minimum of 1.23 tons/hectare in 2008 and a maximum of 2.20 tons/hectare in 2015.On the other side,the estimated regression equation points out that productivity of wheat crop followed an increasing trend,at the annual rate of 0.047 ton/hectare,and statistically significant proportion of average productivity change was accounted approximately 2.66% at the study period.Similarly,collecting the primary data as a random sample of wheat farmers during the agricultural season 2019 in order to gain the required research objectives and identify the main problems of farmers confronted in wheat production.The sample comprised the statistical population of all wheat farmers in Paktia province.A random sample comprising 255 wheat farmers was drawn from Paktia province to identify farmers' opinions regarding problems facing them in wheat production.For the final step of the study,we mentioned that Afghanistan is yet suffering from a huge gap of wheat between domestic production and consumption.Hence,the current part of the research examines the problems arising from lack of wheat production to meet the selfsufficiency of the population.So,methods of the time series analysis can make a short-run forecast for a sufficiently large size of data on the concerned variables very precisely.In univariate time series analysis,the ARIMA models are flexible and extensively applicable.The ARIMA model is included to three processes: Autoregressive(AR),Differencing,and Moving-Average processes.These processes are recognized in statistical literature as main univariate time series models and are commonly applied in several applications.Where estimation of future wheat requirement is one of the essential tools that may help decisionmakers to determine what is needed and then developed plans that help in minimizing the gap between production and consumption.Meanwhile,most of the prediction methods are valid for one-year.However,moving prediction methods have been found to measure and predict the future movement of the dependent variable.Therefore,the current research aims were the prediction for Area,Productivity,Production,Consumption,and Population over the period(2002-2017),to estimate the values of these variables in the period of(2018-2030)to predict the future trends.The result shows that the series data was not static due to the increasing or decreasing of the general trends,which means the instability of the average by using Auto-correlation function(ACF)and Partial Correlation Function to detect the stability.Moreover,the results also indicate that the significance of the Autocorrelation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient values of the time series is not static.So,only a solid strategy for investment in infrastructures which,deteriorated during the war(e.g.roads,dams for agricultural irrigation and electricity),the applying of improved seeds and fertilizers,a useful research and extension system for better crop management is necessary to eliminate this gap for self-sufficiency in wheat production in the future.Based on the archived findings of the overall study,it could recommend that.i)the government should pay attention to investment in infrastructures,should improve better extension services,and the use of other information sources,including radio,TV,and newspaper,etc.ii)for the farmers.Moreover,farmers' access to information sources should be the key element in agricultural policies,especially those areas which,were severely targeted for war.iii)The government should pay attention to enhance farmers' access to credit by simplifying and shorten the credit processing period and procedure considerably.iv)The financial institutions should accept both landholdings and livestock/crops as collateral for advancing loans to enhance farmers' access to institutional credit.v)Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock(MAIL)should also arrange training programs for farmers,guiding them through the agricultural practices,the process of obtaining a loan from institutional sources and encourage the positive use of the credit.vi)It is suggested that priority should be given to improving the efficiency of wheat farms by introducing new technology and technical training programs for the farmers and by promoting extension services. |
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