The Effect Of Inter-state Military Conflicts On Agriculture Product Trade

In recent years,the international political situation has changed.The political games among the great powers have led the current international situation still been unstable.Regional military conflicts and frictions are still taking place.With the development of globalization,the influence of political on trade has also attracted the attention of scholars.Especially after the establishment of various kinds of political relations databases,relevant documents are emerging constantly.However,scholars now are focusing more on the impact of military conflicts on the overall trade.There are few documents concerned about the impact of military conflicts on trade in a certain industry,the literature on the impact of military conflicts on the trade of agricultural products is more rare.With the rapid growth of world agricultural trade in recent years,it is also more important to the development of agriculture in the world.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the impact of inter-state military conflicts on the agricultural products trade under the unstable political situation.This paper first sorts and summarizes the literature of the predecessors and finds that most scholars still support the view that trade follows the national flag,however,the literature analysis the effect on agricultural trade is still relatively rare.After that,this article made a descriptive analysis on the development of agricultural trade in recent years and found that over the past two decades,the agricultural products trade has been rapidly developed.The trade volume of agricultural products has continued to increase on all continents.In the following,the article also analyzes the international military conflicts over the past two decades and finds that conflicts have been happening for more than two decades.However,the frequency of the military conflicts has decreased slightly in recent years.Then taking the "Ukraine Crisis" as an example,this article analyzes the military conflict on agricultural product trade between Ukraine and Russia and between Russia and the United States.Then,this article analyzes how the military conflicts affect the agricultural product trade from macroscopic and microscopic perspectives respectively,and studies its mechanism.Based on the data of bilateral trade between 172 countries from 1993 to 2015,this paper use extended gravity models to test the effect of inter-state military conflicts on agriculture product trade.The main conclusions are as follows:On the whole,there are contemporaneous and persistent effects of inter-state military conflicts on agricultural trade,and the first to third periods of lag show a significant negative impact.From the point of view of military conflict grade,only the high-grade military conflicts have a significant negative impact on agricultural trade,while the low and middle level conflicts have no significant effect on the bilateral trade in agricultural products;From the point of view of sample,the impact of conflict between OECD countries and non-OECD countries on agricultural trade is very significant,and the impact of military conflict between developing countries on agricultural trade is also significant,but the military conflicts between OECD countries has no significant effect on trade in agricultural products;According to the SITC classification of trade in agricultural products,there’s a significant negative impact on the trade in food,beverages,tobacco,crude materials and oils.Finally,this paper studies whether the military conflicts will have an impact on the trade in agricultural products of a third country.Then found that military conflicts countries will shift their agricultural product trade to third countries and increase trade in agricultural products with third countries.Based on the above findings,this paper presents a simply policy suggestion.Since inter-State military conflicts have a significant and continuing negative impact on the agricultural trade.Therefore,improve the political relations among all countries and creating a peaceful political environment is of great significance to the development of agricultural product trade.