Study On Supply And Demand Risk Of Government Purchasing Pension Service In Shanghai

The government purchase pension service is the government and social organizations rely on community and pension institutions,for the convenience of the old people’s life,meet the pension service projects such as the basic necessities of life needs.With the aging population increasing,the demand for elderly care services gradually expands and the traditional pension services such as family and institution retirement can not fully meet the diversified needs of current aged care services.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party pointed out that it is necessary to actively cope with population aging and construct an old-age service policy system.The government,as the main body of public service,is under great pressure on pension services.Therefore,at this stage,Not only contribute to the government to improve the pension service system,but also conducive to the sustainable development of pension services.From the perspective of supply and demand risk,firstly,based on the theory of new public management and demand theory and theory of risk management,the paper briefly states the supply and demand risk of government purchasing pension service.Secondly,it analyzes the development course of Shanghai government purchasing pension service,According to the Fourth Sample of Living Conditions of Urban and Rural Elderly in China(Shanghai Regional Status Report)released in 2017,the status quo of elderly care services in the survey is focused on,Willingness,expenditure,demand analysis.Based on this,a multiple regression model is constructed to quantify and supply the general level of the supply of aged services and demand,and the specific supply and demand risks are summed up and analyzed.Then,using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the supply and demand risk;Finally,according to the evaluation results,put forward the response to the main risk.The dissertation draws the following conclusions: First,the result of multivariate regression model shows that there is a trend of supply and demand risk,supply and demand are in line with each other,but there is still a gap in the overall level.Secondly,according to the government supply of pension services and Demand and demand analysis,facility construction,capital investment and other aspects of the formation of supply and demand risk,detailed refinement for the supply and demand level,supply and demand structure,policy,supervision and feedback of four aspects of the 10 kinds of risk;Third,the supply and demand risk analysis,come to The overall risk coefficient is 5.72,which is at the moderate level of risk but close to the high risk of the risk coefficient of 6,which should be paid attention to.The level of supply and demand and the structure of supply and demand are significant risks.The specific service contents,service personnel and policy implementation risks are greatly affected;Fourthly,in view of the main risks of the evaluation results,we put forward some measures such as improving the ability of service supply,strengthening the construction of service personnel and optimizing the service configuration to deal with supply and demand risks.