Research On The Influence Of Processing Fluency And Time Distance On Probability Weight Bias

Probability weight bias refers to the phenomenon that people's subjective estimate of the probability of an event is inconsistent with the objective probability of the event.The problem of probability estimation in life is everywhere.People's fear of taking airplanes and other transportation modes is also the overestimation of low-probability events.This kind of attention to the deviation of probability estimation is often applied to the marketing of production and life.For example,people can win a prize with high gold content in a small probability,which can attract a lot of people's attention.In this paper,the influence of emotion on probability weight bias and the effect of processing fluency on emotion are noticed,and it is considered that processing fluency may influence the probability weight bias under the influence of emotion.Two sub-concepts of processing fluency,conceptual fluency and perceptual fluency,were used as independent variables to conduct experiments on two risk tasks,namely,money and time.In experiment 1,experiment 1a is the influence of 2(conceptual fluency: high/low)on probability weight bias and 2(perceived fluency: high/low)on probability estimation under the condition of monetary benefit.Experiment 1b is the effect of 2(conceptual fluency: high/low)and 2(perceptual fluency: high/low)on probability weight bias under the condition of time loss.In experiment 2,the distance of time was increased,and it was assumed that the processing fluency and time distance had some interaction.Experiment 2a is the two-factor experimental design of 2(conceptual fluency: high/low)×2(time distance: far/near)hybrid design and 2(perceived fluency: high/low)×2(time distance: far/near)under the condition of monetary benefit.Experiment 2b is the influence of time distance and processing fluency on the deviation of probability estimation under the condition of time loss.According to the analysis of experimental results,the following results are mainly obtained:(1)in the context of monetary income task,processing fluency has an effect on probability weight deviation;The higher the processing smoothness is,the greater the small probability deviation of overestimation in the estimation of small probability events is.(2)in the context of time loss task,processing fluency has an impact on both probability estimation bias and emotion.The lower the conceptual fluency,the stronger the negative emotions felt and the lower the probability of overestimation.The lower the perceptual fluency,the weaker the perceived negative emotion,and the lower the probability of overestimation.(3)in the context of the money-earning task,processing fluency and time distance have an interactive effect on probability weight bias.The closer the time distance is,the lower the processing fluency is,the greater the deviation is in the process of small probability estimation.The time distance is long and the difference of processing fluency to probability estimation is not significant.(4)in the context of time loss task,perceived fluency and time distance interact with probability weight bias.The shorter the time distance is,the lower the perceptual fluency is,and the smaller the deviation is in the small probability estimation.The time distance is long and the difference of processing fluency to probability estimation is not significant.(5)in the context of time loss task,there is no interaction between the influence of processing fluency and time distance on probability weight bias.The influence of conceptual fluency on the bias of probability estimation is not significant.Processing fluency affects probability estimation in the dimension of small probability estimation.In the case of time loss,fluency has a significant effect on mood.There is an interaction between processing fluency and time distance in the dimension of small probability estimation.