Realization Of Infectious Disease Prediction And Visualization System Based On SEIR Model

Epidemic infectious diseases,the main way of infection for direct transmission,aerosol transmission and contact transmission.Whenever an outbreak occurs,many researchers and scholars devote themselves to the research of infection prediction.However,most of the traditional dynamic model prediction methods have a single consideration factor,do not conform to the characteristics of some infectious diseases,and the prediction accuracy is low,so they cannot be well applied in practice.In this context,taking COVID-19 as an example,this paper applies the improved SEIR model to predict the COVID-19 epidemic,discusses the feasibility and effectiveness of this prediction model,and constructs a related visualization platform.To provide reference for the prevention and early warning of COVID-19.Its main work contents are as follows:(1)Research on traditional infectious disease dynamic prediction model.This paper studies the methods and ideas of the traditional SIR model and SEIR model.The traditional SIR model and SEIR model were used to predict the COVID-19 epidemic in China,which laid a foundation for the comparison experiment of the improved SEIR model.(2)Improvement based on traditional SEIR model.In this paper,a series of problems such as few parameters and immobilized parameters were taken into account in the traditional SEIR model.The infection rate of the vulnerable infected persons by the latent persons was introduced into the traditional SEIR model,and the model was segmated based on the index of the relevant urban migration model.Finally,parameters were selected with the least square method to construct the epidemic prediction model.Compared with the traditional SIR model and SEIR model prediction method,this method can obtain better prediction results and improve the accuracy of COVID-19 epidemic prediction.(3)The construction of visual platform.In order to better demonstrate the predicted results,based on the above improved prediction model and actual epidemic data,this paper developed a COVID-19 visualization system by using VUE framework and Python combined with Echarts and DataV.