| Objective:Tongue squamous cell carcinoma(TSCC)is a common malignant tumor in the oral cavity,which has stronger invasive ability,poorly prognosis and high rate recurrence.The purpose of this article is to establish a clinical prediction model for assessing the recurrence rate by analyzing the risk factors related to the recurrence of tongue squamous cell carcinoma,in order to implement early intervention and extend the survival time for patients.Methods:Case data of early TSCC patients who underwent enlarged primary resection and cervical lymph node dissection were collected from January 2011 to January 2019 in the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University.245 patients were randomly divided into a modeling group of 196 and a validation group of 49 according to 4: 1.In the modeling group,logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors associated with early recurrence of TSCC and a nomogram prediction model was established.Validation group were used to evaluate the effectiveness and predictive ability of the prediction model.Results:Of the 245 patients,89 cases recurred and the recurrence rate was 36.33%.According to the results of multivariate analysis,there were four variables highly related to the recurrence of TSCC,that were the degree of tumor differentiation,the neuromuscular invasion situation,the maximum diameter of tumor,and pathological lymph node metastasis.The prediction model was established on basis of these four variables and then verified with cases in the validation group,confirming that it had a good degree of calibration and high clinical application value.Conclusion:Based on the degree of tumor differentiation,the neuromuscular invasion situation,the maximum diameter of tumor,and pathological lymph node metastasis,the clinical prediction model can be used to assess the probability of recurrence andmonitor the prognosis of early TSCC patients. |
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