Nomogram Predicts Long-term Survival After Surgery For Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Background:the long-term prognosis of hilar cholangiocarcinoma(HCCA)is very poor,and the existing staging system is very inconvenient for clinical use.Therefore,the purpose of this study is to establish a simple and useful prediction model for predicting the long-term survival rate of patients.Methods:data from 358 patients in our study were retrieved from the national cancer institute's SEER registry database.The prognostic value of lymph node ratio(LNR)in the main cohort was analyzed,and then a Nomogram was established based on LNR to predict the long-term survival rate of patients.The prediction model is then evaluated for performance,which can be further validated by an internal validation queue.Results:our analysis showed that LNR was significantly correlated with other factors except age,gender and surgical method.Through single factor and multi-factor analysis,LNR was found to be an independent risk factor for overall survival in both the primary cohort and the validation cohort.In addition,age,T grade,and M grade have also been shown to be independent risk factors for overall survival.The Nomogram we established is a good predictor of long-term survival in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma.The accuracy of the validation queue can also be verified.Conclusion:this study confirmed that LNR is a reliable prognostic factor for patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma.The size of LNR is independent of the surgical method,and LNR can be used as an independent risk factor for long-term postoperative survival rate of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma regardless of the surgical method.The Nomogram we assigned according to LNR,T,M and age shows a good prediction accuracy and is a good prognosis model.