Validation Of European System For Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation ? In Predicting Postoperative Complications After Cardiac Surgery

Objectives:To evaluate the clinical value of the European Heart Surgery Risk assessment System in predicting the incidence of complications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery,and to explore whether the EuroSCORE system can be used to assess the risk of postoperative cardiac complications.Methods:The perioperative clinical data of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in our center for cardiothoracic surgery from April 2012 to April2019 were retrospectively collected.The male and female patients were 362and 325,respectively,with an average age of(39.32±8.56)years.EuroSCORE ? was used to predict the incidence of postoperative cardiac complications in patients,and the predictive power of the model was evaluated by comparing the actual incidence with the predicted incidence.The H-L goodness of fit test was used to access the calibration.Discrimination was tested by the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).The performance of EuroSCORE ? on postoperative complications was detected by AUC and H-L test.According to the results of the model evaluation,the model was selected to predict good postoperative complications,and the Youden index was calculated to obtain the best cut-off value.According to the cut-off value group,the X~2test compared the actual complications between the two groups rate.Results:There were no complete atrioventricular block and anticoagulant complications in the whole group of 687 patients after cardiac surgery.EuroSCORE ? was associated with low cardiac volumetric syndrome,acute renal insufficiency,intra-aortic balloon pump,and atrial fibrillation.The prognostic validity of complication prediction is good,and EuroSCORE ? is in good agreement with the prediction of 5complications of low cardiac volumetric syndrome,sternum reattachment,acute renal insufficiency,intra-aortic balloon pump and atrial fibrillation.Based on this,postoperative cardiac complications with good predictive value were:low cardiac volumetric syndrome,acute renal insufficiency,intra-aortic balloon pump and atrial fibrillation.Areas under the ROC(AUC)curves measured by H-L goodness of fit test were0.764,0.732,0.747 and 0.742.The optimal cut-off points were6.40,4.20,5.45 and 7.45.Conclusions:EuroSCORE ? has a good forecast of four complications such as low cardiac volumetric syndrome,acute renal insufficiency,intra-aortic balloon pump and atrial fibrillation.