Study On The Relationship Between Serum Tumor Markers And Breast Cancer Among Women Undergoing Physical Examination Based On Age-Period-Cohort Model

Objective:To investigate the epidemic trend of breast cancer and to analyze the relationship between serum tumor markers and breast cancer based on age-period-cohort model.Methods:The basic information,physiological and biochemical indicators,and breast cancer screening results of women undergoing physical examination in our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were enrolled for the establishment of age-period-cohort model.The effects of age effect,period effect and birth cohort effect on the incidence of breast cancer were analyzed.Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual percentage change.At the same time,the correlation between serum tumor markers levels including carbohydrate antigen 125(CA125),carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA),carbohydrate antigen(CA153)and the incidence of breast cancer was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis based on the age-period-cohort model.Thereafter,the prevention and control measures of breast cancer were analyzed.Results:A total of 353 cases of breast cancer were screened from 2012 to 2019 during physical examination,and the prevalence of breast cancer was 42.81/105.Among them,31 cases of breast cancer were screened in 30-to 40-year-old group,with a prevalence rate of 15.42/105;80 cases of breast cancer were screened in 40-to 50-year-old group,with a prevalence rate of 32.26/105;122 cases of breast cancer were screened in 50-to 60-year-old group,with a prevalence rate of 63.45/105;88 cases of breast cancer were screened in 60-to 70-year-old group,with a prevalence rate of 73.20/105;32 cases of breast cancer were screened in 70-to 75-year-old group,with a prevalence rate of 50.80/105;Overall,the prevalence of breast cancer was the lowest in the 30-to 40-year-old group,and the highest in the 60-70-year-old group;From 2012 to 2018,the number of screened breast cancers increased year by year,while the number of screened breast cancers decreased in 2019.In the aspect of age,the APC model analysis showed that the breast cancer prevalence rate of the physical examination population in each period was mainly on the rise with the growth of age,which was relatively low before the age of 40.After the age of 40,the prevalence rate rose rapidly with the growth of age,and fluctuated after the age of 65,but still significantly higher than that before the age of 40;In the aspect of period,the prevalence of breast cancer in all age groups increased from 2012 to 2013,2014 to 2015,and 2016 to 2017,respectively,while the prevalence of breast cancer in all age groups decreased from 2018 to 2019.In the aspect of birth cohort,the prevalence of breast cancer in physical examination population decreased gradually with the increase of birth year.The incidence of breast cancer among those born before the 1970s was significantly higher than that of those born after the 1970s,and peaked in the 1950s and 1960s.Univariate analysis showed that breast cancer was related to age,BMI,serum CA153,CA125,and CEA levels.Among the age factors,the prevalence of breast cancer was the highest in 60-to 70-year-old group;among the BMI factors,the prevalence of breast cancer was the highest in obese group;The prevalence of breast cancer in group with high serum CA153,CA125 and CEA levels was significantly higher than that in group with low serum CA153,CA125 and CEA levels.Multivariate analysis showed that age,overweight,obesity,high serum CA153,CA125 and CEA levels were independent risk factors of breast cancer.Conclusions:The overall prevalence of breast cancer in the physical examination population in this study is 42.81/105.The prevalence of breast cancer shows an upward trend with the increase of age and period,and downward trend with the birth cohort.Populations who are born earlier and older suffer a higher risk of breast cancer.Moreover,age,overweight,obesity,high serum CA153,CA125 and CEA levels are independent risk factors of breast cancer.It is suggested that middle-aged and elderly women should control the intake of high-calorie food,control body weight,and regularly monitor serum CA153,CA125,CEA and other indicators.