Research On The Adaptability Of Medical Resources And Aging In China

Aging of population has become an increasingly serious global problem,and China is the country with the largest elderly population in the world.In the "healthy China strategy" highlighted in the report of the 19 th CPC national congress,"healthy aging" is the top priority,and adequate and reasonable allocation of medical and health resources is a necessary condition for the realization of healthy aging.How to solve the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development in the field of medical and health care in China and the grand social goal of healthy aging has become one of the important problems to be solved urgently at the present stage.Based on the data of aging,medical resources and related influencing factors of31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in the mainland of China from 2009 to 2017,this paper studies the adaptability aging situation of medical resources in China by using bayesian statistics and geographical detector method.First,based on the collected data,the bayesian spatial-temporal interaction model(BSTIM)is used to calculate the relative spatial level and local variation trend of aging and medical resources in each province.Then,based on the Chinese mainland’s 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of medical resources and ageing space relative levels and local change trend to build odds thewire indicators,as the medical resources and ageing matching measures,and from the space changing trend respectively to measure the relative levels and local provincial medical resources and ageing degree of static matching and dynamic matching degree,thus come to the conclusion that medical resources is adapt to ageing.Finally,combined with our provincial medical resources and ageing degree of static matching and dynamic matching degree,medical resources data and its influencing factors,respectively using geographic detector(Geo Detector)and bay leaf Lasso regression model(BLRM),according to the spatial heterogeneity and relative change Angle estimates the influence degree of the aging of medical resources,from two aspects: static and dynamic test medical resources optimum aging condition.Based on the new perspective and method,this paper draws a series of new conclusions :(1)The spatial relative risk and local change characteristics of aging in each region of China have obvious distribution characteristics in the eastern,central and western regions,while the spatial relative risk and local growth trend of aging in the eastern,central and western regions decrease in turn;The spatial relative level and local variation characteristics of medical resources in various regions in China have obvious distribution characteristics in the south and the north.The relative level of medical resources in the south is lower than that in the north,but the local increase trend is stronger than that in the north.(2)Aging and medical resources static odds thewire present obvious geographical distribution,roughly static medical resources optimum aging degree is higher than in the north of the south,and the dynamic of medical resources optimum aging in contrast to the static results present geographical distribution,dynamic medical care resources in the south of optimal aging degree is higher than the north.Respectively at the same time,the use of the geographical probe analysis of medical resources spatial heterogeneity and bay leaf,Lasso regression model to analyze the influencing factors of medical resources changes,study the static ageing of medical resources optimum medical care resources and the dynamic optimal aging condition,the results found that the odds thewire index of medical resources optimum aging results correctly.It is concluded that China’s medical resources optimum aging degree has the ability of self-regulation,the future of static medical resources optimum aging degree is dynamic medical resources optimum the results of the long-term effects of aging degree of sex,helpful for optimal aging degree of local medical resources in narrow the gap,you can achieve the coordinated development of the national medical resources optimum aging.(3)Under the aging background of medical resources,per capita GDP is the leading force to further optimize the allocation of medical resources.Under a certain degree of marketization,the increase of marketization will improve the allocation of medical resources in China.The reverse effect of fixed assets investment on medical resources is related to the structural change of fixed assets investment in recent years.The increase of medical financial expenditure will improve the allocation of medical resources.Medicalfinancial expenditure will improve the allocation of medical resources in China.The financial self-sufficiency ratio has a negative effect on medical resources,indicating that China still needs to expand financial expenditure to improve the allocation of medical resources.Combined with the conclusions obtained,it provides scientific basis for the coordinated development of medical system reform,aging and medical resources,in order to establish a medical resources allocation system with Chinese characteristics that is adaptability for China’s actual national conditions,and give full consideration to the development trend of China’s current aging population.Before the further deepening of aging,the government should make appropriate preparations to coordinate the development of aging and medical resources.