Predictive Value Of Simple Assessment Scale For Prognosis Of Patients With Acute Cerebral Infarction

Objective To explore the predictive value of the simple assessment scale for the 3-month adverse prognosis of patients with acute cerebral infarction.Methods A total of 623 patients with acute cerebral infarction who were hospitalized in the Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery of the Affiliated Hospital of North China University of Technology from September 2016 to December 2017 were selected as the research object and used as the observation cohort.Using a nested case-control study,patients were followed up 3 months after discharge from the hospital.At the end of the follow-up,according to the mRS scale score,138 patients with mRS>2 points in the observation cohort were regarded as poor prognosis groups(case group),485 patients with mRS?2 points served as a good prognosis group(control group).Collect the patient's current medical history,past history,laboratory examination results and imaging examination results within 24 hours of admission,and use the NIHSS score and simple evaluation scale to score them.The t-test was used to compare the differences between the measured data,and the chi-square test was used to compare the differences between the counted data.The ROC curve is drawn and the area under the ROC curve is analyzed to evaluate the discriminative power of the simple evaluation scale.The paired chi-square test and the consistency test are used to evaluate the calibration degree of the simple evaluation scale.The value of the area under the ROC curve of the simple evaluation scale and ASTRAL score was compared by Z test,and the application value of the simple evaluation scale was further evaluated.Results 1 The difference between the simple assessment scale scores of the good prognosis group and the poor prognosis group was statistically significant(P<0.05).2 The evaluation stage of the short-term assessment scale for the predictive value of the 3-month prognosis of acute cerebral infarction: the area under the ROC curve is 0.899,the diagnostic cutoff value is 4.5 points,the sensitivity is 0.710,the specificity is 0.963,the total The agreement is 0.907,the Kappa value is 0.714,and the paired chi-square test P = 0.005(P<0.05).3 The simple evaluation scale predicts the practical application of 3-month prognosis in patients with acute cerebral infarction: sensitivity 0.883,specificity 0.863,total consistency 0.870,Kappa value 0.715,paired chi-square test P=0.064(P>0.05).4 The area under the ROC curve predicted by the simple assessment scale and the ASTRAL score scale for 3-month prognostic outcome in patients with acute cerebral infarction was 0.931 and 0.822,Z value was 2.85,P=0.004(P<0.05),the difference was statistically significant.Conclusion After evaluation and verification,the simple assessment scale has a certain clinical value for the prediction of the 3-month prognosis of patients with acute cerebral infarction.When the cut-off value is 4 points,it has high sensitivity and specificity.Figure2;Table10;Reference 191.