Application Of Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model To Two Types Of Infectious Diseases In Inner Mongolia

Since the first industrial revolution,the world’s greenhouse gas emissions have increased rapidly,resulting in a serious global environmental pollution problem,affecting every corner of the global village,global climate,air pollution,human health and other issues.Research proves that climate change has effects on many diseases.At present,the influence of meteorological factors and air pollution on population health has been widely concerned at home and abroad.This paper expounds the basic theory of distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM),and on the basis of this theory,discusses the relationship between meteorological factors with Hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)and brucellosis in Inner Mongolia,which is helpful for us to further understand the influencing factors of the disease and finally achieve the goal of epidemic prevention.This paper mainly carries out the application research from the following aspects:First,to explore the non-linear and lag relationship between different climate factors and the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease among different genders in Hohhot(Inner Mongolia);and to provide theoretical and practical guidance for prevention and control of HFMD for regions with a similar climate.Poisson generalized linear model combined with DLNM was used to analyze the relationship between the daily incidence of HFMD from May to September,2009-2017(warm season)and the main climate factors with the same period.The results show that the daily average temperature,sunshine hours,daily maximum wind speed and daily relative humidity have different patterns of HFMD.There were significant differences in gender between HFMD and sunshine hours and the maximum wind speed.Second,descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia autonomous region from 2005 to 2018,such as time distribution,spatial distribution,occupational distribution,age distribution,etc.The key epidemic area(xilingol league)was selected to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of brucellosis by using the DLNM.Theresults showed that the total incidence of brucellosis in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region from 2005 to 2018 was 169,469,with an average incidence of 48.90/100,000.The epidemic is severe in central and eastern China,and the reported cases are mainly concentrated in Xilingol League,Ulanqab,Hinggan League and Hulun Buir.The peak season is spring and summer,with obvious seasonal characteristics,mainly concentrated in March to August;The age distribution is mainly between 30 and 60 years old,and the occupation distribution is mainly farmers.Monthly mean temperature,monthly mean wind speed and monthly mean precipitation were significantly correlated with the incidence of brucellosis,and there was a lag effect of different patterns.