| Objective:To understand the mortality and burden of respiratory diseases in rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng in Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2017,and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of respiratory diseases.Methods:Collecting all-cause death data and demographic data from 2009 to 2017 in Zhangwu and Fengcheng,Liaoning Province.The calculation of death,the mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,the expected loss of life caused by life and death index years,analyze the trend of death and disease burden of respiratory diseases.Results:1.From 2009 to 2017,the top four causes of death in rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng were circulatory diseases,tumors,injuries and respiratory diseases.2.The mortality rates of respiratory diseases and standardized mortality rates were43.09/100,000 and 36.89/100,000,respectively.Among them,the mortality rates of males and standardized mortality rates were lower than those of females(?~2=5.59?4864.93,P<0.05),and the total standardized mortality rates of respiratory diseases showed a decreasing trend with the change of years(APC=-10.63%,P<0.05).3.From 2009 to 2017,life expectancy was 77.47 years,and life expectancy for respiratory diseases was 78.29 years.Male life expectancy and life expectancy for respiratory diseases were lower than female life expectancy.Total life expectancy and female life expectancy increased with the years(APC=0.76%,0.90%,P<0.05);life expectancy for respiratory diseases was higher for both males and females with the years(APC=0.76%,0.90%,P<0.05).The change showed an upward trend(APC=0.77%,0.88%,P<0.05).4.From 2009 to 2017,YLL of respiratory diseases was 34 058.63 years,AYLL was 8.90years per person.The YLL and standardized YLL rates of women(17 392.77person-years,3.60)were higher than those of men(16 665.86 person-years,3.12).The total YLL rate and standardized YLL rate showed a downward trend with the change of years(APC=-10.81%,-10.01%,P<0.05).From 2009 to 2017,the total standardized YLL rate of COPD showed a downward trend(APC=-11.21%,P<0.05);the total standardized YLL rate and AYLL rate of chronic bronchitis showed a downward trend(APC=-8.43%,1.02%,P<0.05);the total YLL,YLL rate and standardized YLL rate of pneumonia showed a downward trend(APC=-7.91%,7.55%,15.63%,P<0.05).The average annual change of YLL in pneumoconiosis was 6.85%(P>0.05).5.GM(1,1)predicted results showed that the standardized mortality rates in 2018-2021were 20.01/100 000,17.49/100 000,17.49/100 000,15.29/100 000,15.29/100 000,13.37/100 000(MAPE=6.14%);the total YLL rates in 2018-2001 were 2.55,2.28,2.05,2.05,2.05 and 1.84(MAPE=0.79%);the standardized mortality rates in 2018-2001were 1.91,1.69,1.69,1.50 1,50,50(MAPE=0.46%).Conclusions:1.From 2009 to 2017,the total standardized mortality rate,total YLL rate and total standardized YLL rate of respiratory diseases in rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng in Liaoning Province showed a downward trend with the change of years.2.The top three causes of death of respiratory diseases in rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng in Liaoning Province are COPD,chronic bronchitis and pneumonia.The standardized mortality rate of women is higher than that of men and increases with age.The standardized mortality rate in Zhangwu is higher than that in Fengcheng,and the winter is the deadiest season.3.From 2009 to 2017,the total life expectancy showed an upward trend with the change of years,while the life expectancy of male and female patients with respiratory diseases showed an upward trend with the change of years.4.GM prediction shows that the total standardized mortality rate,total YLL rate and total standardized YLL rate of respiratory diseases in rural areas of Zhangwu and Fengcheng in Liaoning Province from 2018 to 2021 decrease with the change of years,while the total mortality rate increases with the change of years. |
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