Study On The Epidemiological Characteristics Of Respiratory Infectious Diseases And The Predictive Models Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis In China

Objective1.To analyze the epidemic trend and population distribution of Class B respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2016,and dip into the characteristics of its prevalence and change rules.2.To study the geographical distribution and spatial aggregation status of key respiratory infectious diseases in China.3.According to the tuberculosis epidemic data in China,the autoregressive integrated moving-average model was fitted,the incidence of tuberculosis in China was predicted in a short term based on the fitting model.Materials and methods1.Data collection:?1?the report data of class B respiratory infectious diseases in China collected from the reporting system of infectious disease information network of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;?2?basic population data of China collected from national bureau of statistics;?3?digital vector map of China was obtained from the National Geomatics Center of China?NGCC?.2.Analysis on the epidemic characteristics of respiratory infectious diseases:Microsoft Office Excel 2016 was used to sort out the data of class B respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2016.Descriptive analysis was conducted on the composition of class B respiratory infectious diseases in China and the age composition of patients.Use the Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation test to figure out the epidemiological feature of key class B respiratory infectious diseases in China.3.Study on the geographical distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis:ArcGIS10.2 software was used to link provincial codes with the incidence data of pulmonary tuberculosis in various provinces,and make maps for pulmonary tuberculosis distribution,spatial autocorrelation analysis also performed by this software.4.Establishment of ARIMA model:based on R3.4.4 software to achieve the fitting of the data model of tuberculosis incidence in China,predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in China for a short time.Results1.The prevalence of Class B respiratory infections in China from 2004to 2016In 2004-2016,a total of 15,291,625 cases of Class B respiratory infections were reported in China,with a total of 39,406 deaths.The average incidence rate was 88.12/100,000 and the mortality rate was0.23/100,000.The Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the incidence of pertussis and meningococcal meningitis was on the decline from 2004to 2016 in China.The incidence of measles and tuberculosis both increased in 2004-2009 and declined since 2009.The top three causes of deaths are tuberculosis,measles and meningococcal meningitis.Most people with respiratory infectious diseases were children under the age of 15,while the tuberculosis is common at all ages,with the highest prevalence among people over 65 years old.2.Geographical distribution of tuberculosisThe geographical distribution of tuberculosis in China is seriously uneven.The three regions with the highest incidence are Guizhou,Xinjiang and Tibet.The three regions with the lowest incidence are Shanghai,Tianjin and Shandong.In 2004-2016,the trend of morbidity in most provinces was consistent with the overall trend,but the incidence rates in Xinjiang,Tibet and Qinghai increased year by year.In addition,the western region has the highest incidence rate,followed by the central region,and the eastern region has the lowest incidence rate.However,the number of patients among these three regions were not much different,the number in western region was only 1.12 times of eastern region.Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of tuberculosis in China was positively correlated.And the result of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high region is mainly in the western region,and the low-low region is concentrated in the eastern region.3.Prediction of the trend of tuberculosis in China based on ARIMA modelAccording to the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in China from June2004 to June 2017,the ARIMA?2,1,0?×?0,1,1?₁₂ model was fitted.According to the predicted results,the incidence of tuberculosis in China will continue to decline slightly.The predicted incidence rates of tuberculosis in China in 2018 and 2019 are 59.83/100,000 and58.93/100,000,respectively.Conclusion1.All respiratory infectious diseases in China's vaccine immunization program have been controlled,and most respiratory infectious diseases are mainly caused by children under 15 years old.The incidence of diphtheria was the lowest;But tuberculosis remains the most prevalent disease,with the highest incidence among people over 65.2.The geographical distribution of tuberculosis in China was seriously uneven,and the incidence of tuberculosis in the western region was much higher than that in the other two regions.Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of tuberculosis was clustered.3.The predict results of tuberculosis showed that the incidence of tuberculosis in China will continue to decline slightly in 2018 and 2019.