Development Of A Mathematical Model For Predicting The Risk Factor Of Septic Shock After Percutaneous Nephrolithotripsy

Objective We analyzed the preoperative factors and identified high risk factors for septic shock after percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PCNL),which can effectively reduce the incidence of septic shock.Methods A retrospective analysis of 893 patients who underwent PCNL at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2012 to October 2017 was conducted by us.All cases were confirmed by CT scan and IVU.We set up patients who suffered from septic shock after surgery as the research object.According to the collected data,the statistical analysis was carried out by the SPSS-21.The t-test,Mann-Whitney U test,and Chi-square test were used to analyze the relationship between preoperative factors and the incidence of septic shock.Then binary stepwise regression analysis was taken to screen out the significant factors and established the logistic regression model equation.Results The septic shock incidence after PCNL was 0.9%(8/893).The significant factors we found that were positive urine culture and preoperative urinary tract infection.These variables were then used to establish a logistic regression model to predict the incidence of septic shock after PCNL.The total accuracy of the model was99.2%,the sensitivity was 99.9% and the specificity was 25%.Conclusions Positive urine culture and preoperative urinary tract infection are independent risk factors for septic shock after percutaneous nephrolithotomy.