Comprehensive Risk Assessment And Zoning Of Rape Meteorological Disaster In Sichuan Basin

As a Chinese significant grain and oil production,Sichuan has the prominent supply position in grain and oil production,which has extremely obvious advantages.Sichuan “Tianfu vegetable oil” action was launched to delimit the rapeseed protection zone and integrate the Sichuan rape industry into the “10 + 3” agricultural industry system in 2018.It provided the good opportunity for the upgrading of Sichuan rape industry.Meanwhile,there will be the higher requirements for the agricultural environmental conditions of rape cultivation.Therefore,according to the “four factor theory” of agrometeorological disaster assessment,this paper uses the probability evaluation method of agrometeorological risk and the comprehensive evaluation method of agrometeorological disaster risk to conduct the risk of several major meteorological disasters faced by rape cultivation in the Sichuan Basin main rape producing location,conducts spatial analysis of major meteorological disasters faced by rape through adopting the Arc GIS spatial analysis tools.In addition,it analyzes and interprets the intensity and frequency of each factor distribution in order to provide technical support for the formulation of Sichuan rape cultivation plan and ?the upgrading development of industry.The research results of this paper are mainly as follows:(1)The risk of Sichuan Basin rape disaster-inducing factors are higher in southwest and lower in northeast,which generally decreased from west to east.There are many high risk centers,such as Yingjing,Mingshan,Tianquan,Ya'an in southwest,Luzhou and Naxi in southeast,the districts and counties of Langzhong and Mianyang in North.From the distribution gradient of risk index,the southern area of the basin is more subject to the fluctuation of meteorological conditions,and the risk is higher.The climate stability of Chengdu Plain and northern area of the basin is stronger,and the risk is generally lower than that of the southern area of the basin.(2)Based on the analysis of each factor weight results,such as the risk of disaster-inducing factors,the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies,the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation of rape in Sichuan Province,it can be clear that the contribution rate of the disaster-inducing of meteorological conditions in the main rape producing areas is not high.The main reason for the disaster is that the rape crops are sensitive to adverse climatic conditions,and the centralized and continuous planting pattern is strong exposure.These two factors magnifies the impact of meteorological disasters on rape.In addition,the ability of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation in the region is relatively weak,which objectively enhances the disaster damage.(3)The risk of rape cultivation in the main rape producing areas of Sichuan Basin is generally low,and the high-risk areas are concentrated in a few individual areas in the northwest and south of the basin.The risk of rape cultivation is universally low in the hilly areas and Chengdu Plain areas in the northeast.Only some areas have a high risk,it reflects the strong suitability of Sichuan rape cultivation and the poor defense against disasters.