| Based on the actual production of dairy cows in 17 cities of Shandong Province,this research obtains the original data through statistical data,statistical yearbooks and questionnaire surveys,and consequently analyzed using R software,Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model,and Comparative Advantage Index(AAI)algorithm.Our study systematically analyzed the basic status of dairy cow production in Shandong Province,their regional layout and characteristics,the competitiveness and advantageous of local regions,perspectives in the next five years.The main conclusions are as follows:1)Overview of dairy cow production in Shandong Province.Shandong is a major dairy cow cultivation province in China with dairy cows and milk production ranking 5th and 4th in the country,respectively.In recent years,the development of dairy production in Shandong Province is slow,and the development among cities is not balanced.From 2011 to 2018,the average annual decline in dairy cow inventory and milk production in Shandong Province was 2.91% and 2.33%,respectively.Out of 17 cities the number of dairy cows in Dongying,Rizhao,Dezhou,and Heze increased with the largest annual increase of 5.12%,while the dairy cows of other regions declined with the largest annual decline of 9.97%.Milk production in Jinan,Dongying,Rizhao,Laiwu,Dezhou and Heze increased with the largest annual growth rate of 17.47%.In contrast,the milk production in other regions declined with the largest annual decline of 8.95%.The investigation found that there are some production problems in dairy cow production in Shandong province,such as low purchase price of milk,high feeding cost,lack of development funds,low level of policy subsidy,backward feeding management technology and disharmonious relationship with dairy cow purchasing enterprises.2)The layout and characteristics of dairy production area.The joint clustering analysis based on the dairy cow inventory and total milk production in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2015 to 2019 suggest the 17 cities are clustered into 4 clusters.(1)Qingdao,Jinan,Dongying and Dezhou,with an average annual inventory of 381,990,accounting for 42.23% of the province;an average annual milk production of 1,158,624 tons,accounting for 45.13% of the province.In 2019,the average milk consumption per capita was 51.88 kg,and feeding 0.09 cows per hectare.(2)Tai’an,the average annual inventory is 150,530,accounting for 16.64% of the province;the average annual milk production is 365,557 t,accounting for 14.24% of the province.In 2019,the average milk consumption per capita was 39.07 kg,and feeding 0.09 cows per hectare.(3)Heze,Yantai,Linyi,Zibo,Jining,Liaocheng,Weihai and Weifang,the average annual inventory is 323,960,accounting for 35.81% of the province;the average annual milk production is 912,277 tons,accounting for 35.53% of the province.In 2019,the per capita milk consumption was 15.09 kg,and feeding 0.03 cows per hectare.(4)Rizhao,Zaozhuang,Binzhou,and Laiwu,the annual average inventory is 48,143,accounting for 5.32% of the province;the average annual milk production is 130,986 tons,accounting for 5.10% of the province.In 2019,the per capita milk consumption was 9.94 kg,and feeding 0.02 cows per hectare.The data analysis show that Qingdao,Jinan,Dongying,Dezhou,and Taian are the main production areas of the dairy industry in Shandong Province;Heze,Yantai,Linyi,Zibo,Jining,Liaocheng,Weihai,and Weifang are the secondary production areas.Rizhao,Zhaozhuang,Binzhou,Laiwu are the general production areas.3)The perspective of dairy cow production in the next 5 years.This study predicts dairy cow production in Shandong Province in the next 5 years,using the data of the dairy cow inventory of Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019 and the milk production from 2000 to 2019.The forecast results are as follows: the number of dairy cows in 2024 will decrease compared with 2019,with an average annual decrease of 3.20%;the milk production will decrease by 0.76%.From the survey,among the 150 dairy farms,79.33% of the dairy farms have plans to expand their stock in the next 5 years,and their dairy farming scale accounts for 86.74% of the total scale of the surveyed dairy farms.Combined with the prediction confidence of 80% and 95%,it is expected that the number of dairy cow and milk production in Shandong Province will increase in the next 5 years.4)Competitiveness and advantageous areas of each city.The comparative advantage index and annual average comparative advantage index of dairy production in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2018 were analyzed,the results shows that dairy farming in Jinan,Qingdao,Zibo,Taian,Weihai,Dongying and other regions has comparative advantages.In compare,dairy cow breeding in Zaozhuang,Weifang,Rizhao,Laiwu,Jining,Linyi,Liaocheng,Binzhou,Heze and other regions does not have comparative advantages or obvious advantages.Yantai lost its comparative advantage in dairy farming.Dezhou temporarily has a comparative advantage in dairy farming.The advantageous areas of the dairy industry in Shandong were divided according to the comparative advantage index of each city in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2018.The results are as follows:(1)The areas with obvious development advantages include Dongying;(2)The areas with development advantages include Jinan and Qingdao,Zibo,Weihai,and Taian;(3)Dezhou,Weifang,Binzhou,and Yantai in potential development areas;(4)Laiwu,Rizhao,Heze,Zaozhuang,Liaocheng,Jining and Linyi areas with insufficient advantages.Combined with the layout and advantageous areas of dairy cow production in Shandong province,Jinan-Metropolitan-Area,Jiaodong Peninsula and Yellow River Delta that with Jian,Qingdao and Dongying as the center respectively,are proposed as key development areas for dairy cow production in Shandong Province.In a word,this paper describes the current distribution of dairy production area in Shandong Province by analyzing the data of dairy production in Shandong Province and combining with the field visit survey.It finds the problems and the reasons for slow development of dairy production in Shandong Province,and puts forward the methods and constructive suggestions to solve the problems.At the same time,the study forecasts the development trend of dairy cow production in the next five years,analyzes the competitiveness of 17 cities,and divides the advantageous areas of dairy production and development in Shandong Province.This will provide theoretical reference and reference for the healthy,sustainable and high-quality development of dairy production in Shandong Province. |
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