Prediction Of Subway Door Clamping Force Based On Two-dimensional ARIMA Model

As an important part of the subway,the reliability of the subway door system has an important influence on the operation of subway and the personal safety of passengers.Frequent opening and closing of subway door can easily lead to failures of subway door system.At the same time,the daily inspection of subway door to ensure safety also increases operation and maintenance costs.Statistics show that among all kinds of failures of subway train,the failure of the door system accounts for relatively large.Based on this,it is particularly necessary to carry out analysis and prediction research on the degradation process of the subway door system to ensure the safe operation of the subway.The mechanical transmission system is the core of the subway door system.The dynamic analysis and practice based on the transmission system show that the clamping force of the subway door can reflect the health state of the subway door transmission system.Therefore,this article takes the subway door drive system as the research object,takes the clamping force when the door is closed as a quantitative indicator to evaluate the degradation state of the subway door drive system,and conducts research on the collection and prediction of the clamping force.The main work includes the following aspect:(1)Analyze the structure and working principle of the subway door drive system and demonstrate the rationality of the subway door clamping force as an assessment of the degradation state of the subway door drive system.According to the characteristics of subway door,a portable clamping force measuring device is designed,and a host computer software for analyzing and predicting clamping force data is designed in combination with the subsequent algorithm.(2)Facing different time series prediction models,comparative analysis is conducted from the aspects of data processing,parameter estimation and model test,so as to select the model which is suitable for the prediction of subway door clamping force.Then,combining the selected model and the characteristics of the clamping force,a two-dimensional ARIMA prediction method is proposed to predict the collected clamping force of subway door.(3)For the subway that has been put into operation,the clamping force of door data at different time periods were collected.Based on the collected door clamping force data,the proposed two-dimensional ARIMA prediction model is used to make short-term prediction of clamping force of subway door and analyze the prediction results and the effectiveness of the proposed prediction methodsThe research results show that the designed clamping force data acquisition system has a simple and convenient structure,and can be used for data acquisition and analysis of subway door clamping force;through the comparison between the predicted data and the measured data,it is found that compared with the one-dimensional ARIMA prediction model,the two-dimensional ARIMA prediction model has high prediction accuracy in the short-term prediction of subway door clamping force.The prediction results can provide support and reference for further evaluating the degradation state of the door drive system,optimizing the frequency of daily inspections,analyzing reliability and making maintenance decisions.