Research On The Impact Of Regional Agricultural Production Pattern On The Grain Virtual Water Flow

Since China’s reform and opening up,regional economic patterns have undergone important changes,resources and capital elements have been transferred to southeastern provinces,and regional industrial structures have changed,which has affected the geographical pattern of agricultural production.The main driving factor for the grain virtual water flow is the balanced profit and loss of regional production and consumption.Changes in the regional economic pattern have led to changes in the spatial layout of agriculture(especially food planting),which has an impact on the flow of virtual water for food.The change of regional economic pattern have led to the change in the spatial distribution of agriculture(especially grain planting),which affects the virtual water flow of grain.Systematic analysis of the impacts of regional grain production pattern on grain virtual water flow can further explore the social and economic driving factors of grain virtual water flow,which is of great significance for optimizing the pattern of grain virtual water flow o and achieving efficient and sustainable utilization of water resources.Therefore,based on the panel data of social economy,agricultural production and natural resources,combined with the principles of spatial economics,this study revealed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and evolution laws of China’s social economy,agricultural production and grain virtual water flow from 1997 to 2015.Taking the social economy as an entry point,we have qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the influencing factors of China’s grain virtual water flow from multiple perspectives and dimensions.(1)During the study period,China’s economy,population,and grain production patterns have all undergone significant changes.The economic growth rate of the Jing-Jin-Ji regions and the southeastern coastal regions is slightly faster than other regions,and the characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of population are similar to the economy.Changes in economy and population have affected the grain production pattern.Even though the population growth rate in the southern region is relatively fast,its grain output has always remained at around 250 million tons.On the contrary,the grain output in the northern regions increased significantly,from 22.06 million tons to 34.84 million tons.The proportion of north regions in the national grain output increased from 45.1% to 56.0%,and the grain output of the three northeastern provinces accounted for 34.4% of the grain output in the northern regions.(2)Under the influence of factors such as food and population mobility,during the study period,the scale of grain virtual water flow from north to south increased from 28.17Gm3 to 91.13 Gm3.Heilongjiang,Jilin,Inner Mongolia and Henan are the main grain outflow areas,and the outflow of virtual water is increasing year by year.Among them,Heilongjiang has the largest outflow,rising from 175.82 Gm3 in 2000 to 571.36 Gm3 in 2015.Its grain virtual water is mainly exported to Beijing,Shanghai and the southeastern regions where the grain gap is relatively large.Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Shanghai,and Beijing are the main places where grain virtual water flows in.Guangdong province ranks first,the amount of virtual water flow increased from 188.52 Gm3 to 787.93 Gm3 from 1997 to 2015.(3)By constructing the gravity model of the grain virtual water trade,the main driving factors affecting the regional virtual water flow of grain are revealed.Our study found that the factors that can promote the flow of grain virtual water between regions include per capita water resources,per capita arable land resources,grain output per unit area and the population of virtual water input areas,per capita GDP and per capita disposable income of urban residents.Among these influencing factors,the grain output per unit area in the virtual water output areas and the population in the input areas have the most significant effect.It shows that with the increase of grain production efficiency in China’s main grain-producing areas and the population growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and southeastern coastal areas,the grain virtual water flow between regions will become more frequent and the flow volume will continue to increase.(4)The influencing factors that have a negative correlation with the virtual water flow between regions are population,per capita GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents in the grain virtual water output areas and per capita water resources,per capita cultivated land resources,and grain output per unit area in the input areas.Among them,the negative effect of the population in the virtual water output areas and the grain output per unit area in the input areas is most obvious.The distance between the two regions where virtual water flow occurs is not a factor restricting grain flow between the two places.Regions with large population and relatively insufficient food can transfer food from regions with large grain surplus to ensure the effective supply of grain through virtual water trade,but grain virtual water flow can increase the pressure of water resources in the virtual water output regions.The main innovation of this paper is based on the analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and evolution laws of the economic,population,and water and land resources endowments of 31 provincial administrative regions in mainland China,thedriving factors of grain virtual water flow were analyzed in depth to deepen the understanding of the virtual water flow pattern and its driving force.