Xinjiang Water-Energy-Food Nexus Safety Evaluation And Factor Analysis

With climate change,population growth,and rapid economic and social development,the contradictions between water,energy,and food are becoming increasingly prominent.Comprehensive evaluation of the WEF nexus security is of great significance for ensuring the sustainable development of various resources.In view of the previous studies that mainly focused on single-element or two-element safety assessments,but there are insufficient problems in the system safety research of water energy and food,this study uses the WEF nexus mutual feedback mechanism as the analysis framework and uses Projection Pursuit Model(RAGA-PPE)based on real-code accelerated genetic algorithm was used to comprehensively evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution of WEF nexus security in various cities in Xinjiang from 1997 to 2016.The main influencing factors of security are discussed,and relevant measures to guarantee the security of Xinjiang’s WEF nexus are proposed.The main research results are as follows:(1)Constructed a quantitative evaluation model of water-energy-food security.Establish a WEF nexus relationship framework based on the mutual feedback conversion mechanism of water,energy and food;on the basis of analyzing the safety of single and two elements of the system,construct a system that includes water resources,energy,food and water-Evaluation system of 16 indicators of safety of 6 subsystems including food,energy,food and water-energy.With the help of RAGA-PPE model,a quantitative evaluation model of Xinjiang WEF nexus safety was constructed.(2)Clarified the spatio-temporal changes of Xinjiang’s WEF nexus security.From1997 to 2016,the security level of the WEF nexus in North Xinjiang was always high,and the differences in the safety of the WEF nexus in Xinjiang were reduced.From 1997 to 2009,the WEF nexus security level value of the northern Xinjiang region and the eastern Xinjiang region was higher than that of the southern Xinjiang region.-The security level of the energy-food system is higher than that in the southern and eastern Xinjiang regions,and the difference in the security of the WEF nexus across Xinjiang has decreased significantly.(3)Analyze the characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of the WEF nexus security in Xinjiang’s cities.From 1997 to 2016,except for Urumqi,Karamay and Turpan,the system security level values showed a downward trend,the other city system security level values all showed an upward trend,and the security level values of each city systemranged from 1.32-3.95,distributed in unsafe,Sub-safety and safety 3 levels(levels are divided into very unsafe ～ very safe 5 levels).In terms of stages,from 1997 to 2009,the security level of 12 cities except Urumqi and Karamay showed an upward trend.Only Karamay has maintained the security level,and most other cities are in the unsafe level.From 2010 to 2016,half of the city’s system security level values showed a downward trend.The Kizilsu Kirgiz and Altay 2 cities were in the security level for most years,Changji was always in the unsafe level,and the remaining cities were maintained at the sub-security level for a long time.(4)The influencing factors of Xinjiang’s WEF nexus security have been identified.From 1997 to 2009,the main influencing factors of WEF nexus security in most municipal areas were energy carbon intensity,agricultural water consumption ratio,primary industry energy consumption ratio,energy self-sufficiency rate and agricultural energy utilization rate.It may be affected by Xinjiang ’s economy and related policies.The main influencing factors of each municipality have changed significantly after 2009.From 2010 to 2016,the main influencing factors of each municipality have been changed into energy carbon intensity,water resources per capita,and available irrigation area per unit.Water volume,renewable energy use rate and agricultural water use ratio.Combining the main influencing factors of the WEF nexus security of various municipalities in the near future,we can reduce the carbon intensity of energy,vigorously develop renewable energy,strengthen water resources protection,promote the development of water-saving agriculture,and increase the awareness of WEF nexus security Improve the security of Xinjiang’s WEF nexus in many ways.