Research On Investment And Management Strategy Of Distributed Energy Resources:an Approach Based On Real Option And Risk Analysis

With the background of constructing strong smart-grid,electricity consumers are observed with an increasing demand on reliable power supply.Nevertheless,public policy and energy development tend to support clean and green resources.Thus,the power system has witnessed booming in distributed energy resources in recent years.Considering that uncertainties increase in investment and bidding distributed energy resources(DERs)to power market,the investor and operator of DERs are facing with more and more challenges.That is the motivation of this thesis.The characteristics of typical DERs are described and summarized,as well as a brief introduction and high-level evaluation of micro-grid(MG)on aspect of economy are included in the thesis.The major contributions are focused on two aspects: 1)The optimization model for investment timing of DERs is formulated based on the theory of real options;it includes the uncertainty factors,such as electricity price and DERs initial investment.2)the optimal bidding strategy methodology is constructed for risk-aversion DERs operators;it also investigates the correlation between risk attitude and decision making of bidding strategy.The optimization methodology has been tested and verified with case study,correspondingly.The major conclusion is that 1)the flexibility value of investment based on real options is most sensitive to the initial investment costs of DERs and its change rate,less sensitive to the change of discounted rate and almost insensitive to the change of electricity price.2)In terms of bidding strategy of DERs,the more risk-aversion the DERs operators performs,the bidding price tends to be lower,in order to get a better chance to be selected in competitive power market.Thus,it is able to lower the risk of negative profits,subsequently.