Research On The Proportion Of Electricity In Terminal Energy Consumption Under The Background Of Urban Energy Revolution

The in-depth advancement of global energy revolution has put forward new requirements for urban energy development and transformation,and has also had a profound impact on the existing energy consumption structure.Based on analysis of the development direction of urban energy consumption revolution,this thesis analysed the evolution trend of energy consumption structure in the process of urban energy transformation,and focuses on the important index reflecting the electrification level of energy consumption—the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption(PETEC).Study of this index involves calculation,impact analysis and forecasting,providing reference for power grid companies to adapt to the development of urban energy revolution and promote the process of electricity substitution.Firstly,this thesis starts with the concept of urban energy consumption revolution and interprets the process and connotation of the revolution,clarifying the development direction of energy consumption structure in the current energy revolution process.Furthermore,based on the qualitative analysis,quantitative research on evolution trend of energy consumption structure is performed.The study proposes an improved K-means clustering energy consumption structure evaluation scheme,which is used to explore the overall trend of industrial energy consumption structure evolution from three dimensions: time,industry and energy types.Secondly,PETEC is selected as the analysis index,and the definition and calculation method are given.Based on the energy consumption data of the Bureau of Statistics,the current situation and development trend of urban electrification level under the background of energy revolution were obtained quantitatively;industry sensitivity analysis is adopted to identify contributions of different industries to overall PETEC;according to the basic concepts of multiple regression,the STIRPAT model between PETEC and population,wealth and technical factors is established;the least squares estimation is used to obtain model parameters,and the multi-collinearity problem of the results is diagnosed,which is solved by stepwise regression analysis;according to the theory of path analysis,effects of main influencing factors were clarified,so that effective suggestions are proposed.Finally,considering the overall growth trend and random fluctuating growth rate of PETEC in urban energy revolution,this thesis proposes an accurate prediction method,which is based on the combined prediction model and optimization coordination theory.According to the historical trend of energy and electricity consumption,the method selects each single model suitable for medium and long term PETEC prediction and their weights in the combination.Through historical data verification,the results show that the algorithm reduces the prediction error.In addition,a multi-level coordination optimization model is introduced to solve the problem of uncoordinated energy and electricity consumption prediction results between different levels by fine-tuning,further improving the accuracy of prediction.