Study On The Adjustment Of Urban Rail Train Operation And The Dynamic Deduction Of Passenger Flow In Case Of Emergency

With rapid development of urban rail transit in China,the safety of operation in emergency are more challenging.On the one hand,the size of network density and passengers are increasing constantly,and the damage of emergency is more obvious.On the other hand,the management and solution of emergency can not deal with emergency efficiently and reasonably.Based on these circumstances,this paper focus on emergency of urban rail transit from the point of train operation and passenger schedule.Behavior of path selection,train operation adjustment and dynamic deduction of passenger flow under emergencies are mainly researched in the paper.On the basis of research results,system of urban train operation adjustment and passenger status estimation is developed to provide feasible theory and technology for operation manager,improve ability of response to emergency and decrease the loss and influence of emergency.The main contents are as following:(1)The research of passenger’s path selection.The problems are divided into before emergency and after emergency with two-stage analysis and building model for each problem.A method of circulating quantity of passenger flow is proposed.An alternative set of travel schemes for the affected passenger flow is established.Model of outbound passenger analysis based on the clustering results of the affected passenger flow and model of passenger path selection in rail transit system are built to confirm the influence of travel path and provide data for the next research.(2)The research of train operation adjustment under emergency.The model of train operation adjustment,in which the demand of passengers’ detention and arrival at the platform is time-varying,is built to minimize total wait time of passenger,which can not only provide safe operation of train,but also improve the level of service under emergency.Moreover,The Lagrange relaxation heuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the model.A set of train operation adjustment theory and method under emergency is developed.(3)The research of passenger flow dynamic deduction.Based on the time-spacestate network of urban rail transit,a method of dynamic deduction to describe time-space-state of passengers are proposed in this paper,and the accuracy of the method proposed by this paper is validated.Meanwhile,based on the results of passenger flow dynamic deduction,the models of passenger status and train operation adjustment are validated.(4)Development of system of urban train operation adjustment and passenger status estimation.From the point of urban rail transit manager,aimming to realize automatic perception of emergency,automatic adjustment of train operation plan under emergency,passenger flow prediction results display under emergency and large passenger flow early warning,system of urban train operation adjustment and passenger status estimation is developed with C#,which can assistance operator to response to the emergency properly and decrease the damage and influence of emergency.(5)Case study.Emergency of urban rail transit in a city is researched in this part.Based on the system developed and real data,models of passenger’s path selection,train operation adjustment,and result of passenger flow dynamic deduction is analyzed and proved that the models and algorithm is efficient and the system is economic.Figures:48;Tables:21;References:56.