Research On The Causes Of Bond Default Risks And Financial Early Warning In Machinery Manufacturing

The bond market has exploded in recent years,accompanied by rising market defaults.According to statistics,the machinery manufacturing industry has the largest number of defaulting companies in all industries,which deserves attention and reflection.However,in the existing literature,there is no research on bond default in this industry.Therefore,this article selects the most representative Shenyang machine tool in the machinery manufacturing industry.From a financial perspective,it demonstrates how it has gradually moved from the industry leader to bond default under the influence of various factors.In reality,it is not only Shenyang Machine Tool that has this phenomenon.Many companies are or are about to fall into such default risks,which greatly damages the credit of the company.Therefore,it is very necessary for enterprises to establish an effective early warning system.Reduce bond default risk.This article takes Shenyang machine tool as an example to demonstrate the cause of default risk and early warning mechanism,which provides a good reference for risk identification and risk early warning of similar companies or industries.This paper discusses the causes of bond defaults in the machinery manufacturing industry,how various impact factors have changed the operating trajectory of Shenyang machine tools from the internal environment and the external environment,and then used Z-score values to measure corporate financial risks,and finally combined the theory with cases,Quantitative and qualitative ways to summarize and construct a financial early warning model,and at the same time put forward financial management mechanisms and recommendations to various parties.After research,this paper draws the following conclusions: First,the internal environmental factors including internal management,business strategy,cash flow status,and external environmental factors including macroeconomics and industry prosperity are the reasons for frequent defaults;Second,financial indicators of different dimensions have different sensitivity to risks,so it is necessary to divide financial indicators for different degrees of early warning.Indicators such as operating margin and cash flow are more sensitive to default risk.Once these indicators are abnormal,timely measures should be taken to prevent risks.In addition,the Z-score model provides a more accurate early warning method,by comparing whether the Z value is lower than the threshold to judge whether the enterprise is in default risk.At the same time,this paper also proposes that the financial management mechanism should be improved and the financing channels should be appropriately expanded in view of the current status of the industry.Finally,there are phenomena such as insufficient supervision by regulatory agencies in the domestic bond market,excessively high rating results issued by rating companies,and lack of control over risk by bondholders.Therefore,it is necessary to increase supervision,improve the rating system,and establish a risk early warning mechanism.This paper innovatively analyzes the system of bond defaults in subdivided industries,sorts out the literature on bond default theory,risk measurement,risk causes,and risk warnings,better presents the development process of the case events studied,and puts forward specific recommendations for the industry.The causes of default risk and financial early warning mechanism make the research results widely applicable to other enterprises in the machinery manufacturing industry,and also provide reference research ideas for bond default analysis in other sub-sectors.