Research On The Sub-Health Early Warning Decision Models And Methods Of ATC System Operation

With the rapid development of China's civil aviation transportation industry,the pressure of the air traffic control system is also increasing.The heavy and complicated control task causes ATC system to operate in the sub-health status.When the operation of ATC system is in a sub-health status,various potential hazards may cause accident symptoms or even accidents.From the perspective of safety management,only by researching scientific methods to warn the sub-health status of ATC system operation and taking corresponding pre-control measures based on the early-warning information,it may maintain the normal operation of the ATC system and improving the air traffic safety level.At present,there are few theories about early warning research on the sub-health status of ATC system operation,which need to be further enriched and expanded.Firstly,the relationship between the controller's workload and the operating status of ATC system is determined on the basis of previous studies.Then the actual operation radar data of the sector in a certain period of time is processed,and the sub-health association factor indexes are extracted according to the processed data.The model of the controller's workload forecasting is constructed by using the neural network modeling and analysis,and the validity of the model is verified.Then the operation status of the sector ATC system at a certain time in the future is quantitatively analyzed.Secondly,based on the prediction model,the percentage of controllers' workload in each period is calculated,combined with the sub-health correlation factor index which can reflect the operating status of ATC system in the period,the relationship between the sub-health correlation factor and the percentage of controller's workload is analyzed by means of cross-spectrum analysis,and then the choice of sub-health early warning decision mode is discussed.Finally,combining with the system dynamics(SD)model,from the point of view of system and modeling,the causal relationship between the sub-health factors in ATC system is analyzed,showing the dynamic changes of the key variables intuitively,thus realizes the effective monitoring of the operating status of ATC system,facilitates the air control department to make scientific decision to prevent the emergence of the sub-health status of ATC system,provides the idea for the further study of ATC system sub-health operation,and provides the reliable method and theoretical support for the air traffic control safety theory.