Consistency Analysis And Evaluation Methods Of Hit Accuracy Based On The Equivalent Mapping

The analysis and evaluation of the precision of the weapon system is one of the key problems in its development,finalization,acquisition and operation.Due to various restrictions,some standard tests which are close to the real situation cannot be carried out or can only be carried out in a small amount.Therefore,a large number of substitute tests need to be designed to assist the identification and finalization.Generally,there are differences between substitute tests and standard tests,the substitute tests data cannot be directly used to evaluate the accuracy of the weapon system.Therefore,the substitute test data needs to be reduced to the actual state,and then the accuracy of weapon system is analyzed by using the corresponding evaluation method.The existing reduction method is mainly based on data,which don't consider the physical mechanism of terminal guidance.In addition,there are certain differences between different assessment methods,so the precision analysis and assessment of the weapon system maybe unreliable.This dissertation has carried on the related researches about the above questions.Main contents and innovations are as follows:1.Aiming at the differences between the substitute tests and standard tests,this dissertation discusses the equivalent mapping method based on the terminal guidance process and constructs the final guidance error model which is closely related to the physical mechanism.When the relationship between the guidance error and the influence factors is relatively clear,using the complex response surface model combining physical background of guidance to quantify the differences between the standard tests and substitute tests.Analysing the main factors that influence the guidance error of the weapon system,this dissertation establishes the error response model based on the environment,target feature and the working mode of the seeker.Moreover,adopt the method of model identification to optimize the physical variables.Finally,a method which can reduce the substitute test data to the standard condition is proposed in this thesis.2.Aiming at the ambiguous relation between guidance error and influencing factors,this dissertation researched the equivalent distribution method based on the representative points to reduce the influence of the test differences.In the evaluation process,the substitute test data is often treated as prior information.If the difference between the prior data and the standard test data is large,the classical Bayes method will bring a large evaluation error.Through the equivalent distribution method based on representative points,the equivalent samples with less sample size are selected from the prior data,and an optimization function based on estimation bias and information loss is proposed to determine the optimal number of representative points.It is theoretically proved that the estimation method based on representative points is superior to the classical Bayes method when the systematic bias of prior information is within a certain range,and the relevant numerical examples are also verified this conclusion.3.Aiming at the differences between different evaluation methods,this dissertation researched four different evaluation methods based on the hit probability.Using the Bootstrap method to deduce the interval estimation of the hit probability based on normal distribution.Based on normal distribution,this thesis researched estimation and hypothesis test of the hitting probability,as well as the binomial distribution.In addition,this dissertation analyzes the differences of the four evaluation methods,and put forward the conformity assessment criteria for evaluating by comprehensively considering these four methods.