Urban Residents' Travel Mode Choice Model And Method Research Based On Dynamic Game-theory

With the growth of urban vehicle ownership,a series of urban traffic problems,such as traffic congestion,exhaust pollution and so on,are becoming more and more serious.How to solve these problems has attracted great attention of major cities.Compared with cars,public transport travel has the advantages of high degree of intensification,less road resource per-capita,energy conservation and environmental protection,which is the best choice for the rational allocation of urban public road resources.To study how to solve the above-mentioned urban traffic problems,in fact,we should study how to reasonably allocate urban public road resources.For a city,one of the important factors affecting the allocation of public road resources is the behavior and results of residents' travel mode selection,which will directly affect the status of travel mode in the urban transportation system,thus affecting the allocation of urban public resources.Therefore,the study of urban residents' travel mode choice behavior can effectively solve the urban traffic problems and provide new ideas for them.Game theory is a theoretical method to study the interaction of human society and the coordination between rational subjects.Therefore,the choice of travel mode is suitable to be described by game theory.Considering the characteristics of human limited rationality,based on the prospect theory and dynamic evolutionary game theory,this paper studies the behavior of residents' travel mode choice.The main work is as follows:First of all,through the analysis,the main factors affecting the process of travel mode selection are identified as travel time,travel cost,convenience,comfort,safety and other five.Then,using the prospect theory to analyze the travelers' travel benefit,on this basis,the decision-making model of travel mode selection behavior is established,the comprehensive prospect value is solved,and the influencing factors of travel mode selection are quantified.And then,combining the prospect theory with the dynamic game theory,the two-party dynamic game model and the multi-party dynamic game model of travel mode selection are established respectively.The comprehensive prospect value is taken as the benefit function in the game model.Then,according to the dynamic balance principle of the game model,the condition of realizing the stable operation of the optimal strategy is analyzed,and the solution method of "Nash equilibrium solution" is given.Finally,the feasibility of the model is verified by an example of a block in Haikou City,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given in theory according to the current traffic situation.The purpose of this paper is to study how to maximize the collective benefit of travelers when they choose the proportion of different travel modes under the condition of existing urban road resources.The research results can also be applied to the prediction of travel mode sharing rate.Compared with the traditional four stage method,this method based on the behavior decision of travelers,can overcome some limitations of traditional prediction methods and provide theoretical basis for urban public transport planning and construction.In addition,according to the research results,the corresponding traffic improvement countermeasures and suggestions are given in view of the traffic situation in the research area,in order to provide ideas and countermeasures for solving the urban transportion problems.