Security Evaluation Of Water-Energy-Food Nexus System In China Based On Synergetic-Symbiosis Theory

As the most important resources for production and life,water,energy and food are strat egic basic resources for the survival and development of human beings and important themes in the research field of regional sustainable development.In the context of global population g rowth,environmental degradation,resource shortage and the worsening impact of climate cha nge,the coordinated development of water,energy and food security is particularly important.The increasingly scarce water resources and the increasingly vigorous demand for food and e nergy have brought severe challenges to the security of China’s "water-energy-food" system a nd restricted the sustainable development of China’s economy and society.Therefore,it is incr easingly important to study the internal relationship and interaction between water,energy an d food.In this paper,based on the National Key Research and Development Project National Wa ter-Energy-Food Cooperative Security Evaluation Research,based on the basic unit at the pro vincial level administrative region research area,water and energy in our country-food coope rative security evaluation in the study,based on the collaborative symbiosis theory put forwar d measure regional cooperative security evaluation index system,build the evaluation standar d,to the national water on regional scale-energy-food safety to evaluate the time and space distribution and evolution together.Main research contents include:(1)The spatial and temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of water resources,energy and food resources in China and regions from 1997 to 2016 were analyzed.The analy sis of water resources includes the amount of water resources,the development and utilization status and the structure of water supply;the analysis of energy includes the production,consu mption and foreign trade of primary energy;the analysis of food includes the distribution and evolution of food production and the foreign trade situation of major grains.(2)The theory of synergetic symbiosis is introduced to form a symbiotic relationship wit h water,energy and food as the symbiotic units.The interaction among the three forms the sy mbiotic relationship and constitutes the symbiotic interface.The social,economic and ecologi cal environments as the symbiotic environment jointly constitute the symbiotic system.With t he stability of supply and demand of symbiotic unit as the stability criterion,the coordination of symbiotic relationship as the coordination criterion,and the sustainable development of ext ernal environment as the sustainability criterion,the subsystem is constructed to construct a m ulti-level indicator system.(3)Entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were used to calculat e the weight of each level of the index system,and variable fuzzy evaluation method was used to calculate the characteristic values of stability,coordination,sustainability and collaborativ e security in the whole country and 30 provincial administrative regions from 2007 to 2016,a nd the grades were divided.(4)To analyze and evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stability,coordination,sustainability and collaborative security in various regions of the country,analy ze the causes of distribution and change,and study the coordinated interaction and developme nt of water-energy-food.(5)According to the index system,the system risk factor set was determined,the grey c orrelation coefficient and grey correlation degree of the collaborative security characteristic v alue and risk factor index were calculated by using the grey correlation method,the main influ encing factors of the change of national water-energy-food cooperative security were deter mined,and the key risk factors were identified.