Research On Prediction Method Of Advanced Manufacturing Hot Spots Based On Patent-big-data

Patent is a form of carrying human scientific and technological knowledge.Patent analysis plays an important role in technology foresight.With the in-depth development of informatization,the patent data generated by human society shows a rapid development trend,and the amount of patent data has also increased strongly in the past few decades.Mining and analyzing the potential cutting-edge hotspots in the patent data is of great significance to the strategic planning and technology layout of the country,industry and enterprise.The main methods for predicting traditional cutting-edge hot technologies include Delphi survey method and expert meeting method.Delphi survey method faces practical problems such as the selection of invited experts and the dispersion of statistical data indicators.The whole process of expert meeting method is easy to be suppressed by the opinions of authoritative experts,and is easily affected by the scale of experts,on-site hosting and so on.In view of this,this paper combined with the equipment manufacturing industry development research center,take the "high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment major projects:advanced forming and welding platform construction projects","intelligent manufacturing technology foresight and 2035 roadmap","made in China,2025 digital publishing and service innovation platform and knowledge mining industrialization-components:advanced manufacturing technology knowledge pool research and building" projects such as subject,the following research:(1)Analyze relevant theories of cutting-edge hot spot prediction methods.For the purpose of integrating different technology prediction methods of frontier hot spots more effectively,the concepts,implementation process and method characteristics of Delphi survey method,expert meeting method and patent big data method are systematically analyzed,which lays a theoretical foundation for the hybrid model of frontier hot spots.(2)Innovatively put forward hybrid analysis model of cutting-edge hot technology foresight based on patent big data.In view of the disadvantages of subjectivity of Delphi survey method and expert meeting method in technology foresight activities,this paper proposes a hybrid model integrating patent big data analysis method,Delphi survey method and expert meeting method,and provides objective analysis factors in technology foresight through patent big data analysis method to enhance the accuracy of prediction model.(3)An innovative extraction algorithm for T-BI-LSTM-CRF cutting-edge hot spot technology was proposed.The patent big data analysis in the hybrid prediction model of frontier hot spots proposed above is mainly carried out through external smart bud platform.Aiming at the problem of obtaining algorithm of patent map label on smart bud platform,the extraction algorithm of frontier hot spot technology in patent text is improved,and the T-BI-LSTM-CRF algorithm is proposed.(4)Carry out the application research of frontier hot spot prediction model.Applying the hybrid analysis model of cutting-edge hot technology prediction proposed in this paper to conduct in-depth research in the field of welding,the following conclusions can be drawn:1)The number of welding patent applications in China is increasing year by year,but compared with the United States,Japan,Germany and other countries,the number of high-value patents is less,and the number and quality of patents are not coordinated.2)Friction stir welding,laser welding,semiconductor welding and other technical directions are the most important hot spots in current welding technology innovation.3)The number of patents in friction stir welding has reached the top in the world;In the field of laser welding,there is still a gap between China and foreign countries with developed technology.In particular,it is necessary to vigorously develop key core technologies such as laser core optical devices,welding gun head,detection system and intelligent process.There is a big gap between the number of patents in the field of semiconductor welding and that in foreign countries with developed technology.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the technological development in combination with the development of China's semiconductor industry to ensure the autonomy and control of advanced welding technology in this field.At the same time,it is also applied in casting,forging and pressing,heat treatment.(5)Design the integrated scheme of networked collaborative platform of advanced forming and welding common technology innovation.In the design of networked collaborative platform for advanced forming and welding common technology innovation,the functions of patent retrieval and cutting-edge hot technology extraction are integrated,and the patent database(about 80,000 patents)is built,so that the platform can serve more people.