Transit Assignment With Travel Strategy And Travel Time Uncertainties

With the expansion of urban scale,the rapid development of economy and the popularity of private cars,urban traffic jams are getting worse and worse.Public transportation is characterized by its environment-friendly,low carbon,high carrier rate and large capacity,etc.Giving priority to the development of public transportation has become the preferred measure to alleviate urban traffic congestion.However,there are many problems in urban public transportation in China.The unreasonable layout of urban public transport network is an important factor affecting the efficiency and service level of urban public transport operation.The allocation of bus passenger flow is the result of the route selection strategy for all passengers on the bus line network,and it’s also the basis of the layout design of the urban public transport network.This thesis takes the conventional bus as the research object.Based on the characteristics of the conventional bus network,the passengers’ route selection strategy and the influencing factors of their strategy selection are analyzed,the effective path of bus collinear is defined,and the effective path set is determined by the choice strategy of passenger travel path based on bus collinear and the design depth-first search algorithm.the travel time of the bus section is divided into the travel time between the bus stations and the stop time of the station,an analysis model is proposed to capture the uncertainty of the time when bus travel between sections and stops at the site.According to the GPS data of the bus and the GIS data structure of the site,the method of data matching is determined,calculating the probability distribution of the possible travel time and corresponding travel time of the bus section of the bus.On the base of this,under the uncertainty of the travel time of the bus section,Considering the crowding effect of the bus capacity limit,the congestion effect of the bus section driving,and the impact of the transfer on the passenger’s selection of bus travel route,Introducing the effective departure frequency of bus lines and analyzing the generalized cost and effective strategy cost of passenger route selection,Constructing a route selection strategy model under individual conditions and a traffic assignment model under group conditions,Furthermore,the relationship between regional bus passenger flow and passenger flow at the line site is analyzed,an improved method of successive weight averages is designed to solve the model.Finally,the validity of the model and algorithm is verified by a case study.