Study On The Model And Uncertainty Of Simultaneous Station Occupant In Metro Stations

With the rapid development of China's economy and the advancement of urbanization,China's railway system develops at a high speed.As the main form of railway system,the subway has the advantages of large volume,high speed and high efficiency.The occupant cooling load is an important part of the air conditioning load at the subway station.Researching on simultaneous station occupant to obtaining a more accurate station occupant density has great significance on creating a more comfortable artificial environment.Simultaneous station occupant is related to the incoming passenger flow,exiting passenger flow,the stranded time of the incoming passenger,and the stranded time of the exiting passenger.This paper presents a simple simultaneous station occupant number model and the identification method of stranded time of passengers.In order to verify the accuracy of the simultaneous station occupant number model,this paper takes the Optics Valley Square Station,GuangBuTun Station and JieDaokou Station as the research object.The parameter identification results shows that the stranded time of the incoming passenger and exiting passenger of Optics Valley Square Station are 5.3min and 4.1min;the stranded time of the incoming passenger and exiting passenger of GuangBuTun Station are 4.0min and 1.9min;the stranded time of the incoming passenger and exiting passenger of JieDaoKou Station are 3.6min and 1.9min.By comparing the model predicted values and measured values of the simultaneous station occupants,the accuracy and reliability of the simultaneous station number model can be verified.The maximum relative errors between the predicted values and measured values of the simultaneous station occupant in the three station are 8.7%,11.2%,and 7.5%.The average relative error between the predicted values and measured values of the simultaneous station occupant in the three station are 1.5%,2.1%,and 2.5%.The verification results show that the simultaneous station occupant number model can calculate the simultaneous station occupant accurately.With the purpose of verifying the reliability of simultaneous station occupant number model,Monte-Carlo method is used to quantifying the uncertainty of the model parameters and the model calculation results,analyzing the impact of measurement error on model accuracy.The peak hour simultaneous station occupant can be calculated based on simultaneous station occupant number model.The coefficient of variation is the ratio of the sample standard deviation to the expected value,which measures the degree of sample dispersion.The coefficient of variation of peak hour simultaneous station occupant of each station was 0.03.Study results show that the simultaneous station occupant number model has good accuracy and reliability.For different metro stations,the stranded time of the incoming passenger and exiting passenger can be identified by measurement experiments.Then,the simultaneous station occupant can be calculated by simultaneous station occupant number model.This model can be used as reference for cooling load prediction and control of subway stations.