Study On Estimation Methods Of The Overseas M Railway Construction Cost Based On BPNN

With the deepening of "One Belt And One Road",there are more and more construction projects,especially the overseas railway projects.As the new name card of China's development,the overseas railway construction has spread all over Asia,Africa,and parts of Latin America and Europe.However,although there are many overseas railway projects,there are also many loss cases led by the mecca light rail in Saudi Arabia.The main reason is that the overseas construction management experience is insufficient,and the investment estimation is not scientific and accurate.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the overseas railway construction experience and study the model method suitable for the overseas railway investment cost estimation in China.Firstly,through the analysis of overseas railway historical cases,this paper obtained the characteristics of overseas railway in terms of construction investment risk,financing construction mode and engineering technology characteristics.Secondly,19 influencing factors of overseas railway cost were selected according to the estimated influencing factors of overseas railway investment.Questionnaire survey was used to test the scientificity and rationality of the selection of engineering features.Then,combining with the engineering characteristics of railway projects,and considering the impact of exchange rate,time,place and other factors on the cost data of the case samples,the case database of overseas railway projects was establishe.Next,the case base was combined with BP neural network to establish the investment estimation model of overseas M railway.After the case base data was quantized and normalized,it was stored as 22 data samples.Taking samples 1~19 of the similar data samples found as training samples and samples 20~22 as test samples,the construction cost was predicted by BP neural network.The error of the model is within the allowable range of investment estimation.The model can realize the nonlinear estimation of overseas M railway construction cost,and has certain guiding significance for the future overseas railway project construction.