| In recent years,China’s renewable energy has achieved rapid development.However,the imbalances of power “supply-transmission-demand” has caused serious problems of abandonment in renewable power and then renewable energy cannot be developed and used more efficiently,resulting in unfundamentally changed of energy consumption structure and low quality energy transformation.To solve these problems,the China has been divided into six major regions,and under three power demand scenarios,six power generation technologies and nine transmission technologies are considered.Then,the minimum target of power loss caused by blackouts,and minimum overall cost target of power generation and inter-regional transmission trunk line’s construction,a multi-objective layout optimization model for transmission trunk line is established,where the constraints are the electricity demand,transmission capacity,transmission distance,transmission direction,regional renewable energy installed capacity potential,and power structure.Particle Swarm Optimization-Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II(PSO-NSGA-II)is used to solve the multi-objective optimization model.The results show that,power development and int-regional transmission will develop synergistically.With the medium power demand scenario and equal preference: First,China’s power will be transported across large-scale regions.The transmission capacity of power inter-regions will reach 400 GW in 2040,which is nearly four times higher than that in 2016.The pattern of transmit the electricity from West to East and Nortel to South is more obvious,the Northwest and the northeast is the power net output area;the other areas represented by East become the power net input area.The rapid development of inter-regional transmission channels has provided important support for the development and rational consumption of renewable energy.Fourth,in 2016 and 2040,64 inter-regional direct current trunk lines with ultra-high voltage and above will be newly built.And 2022-2025 and 2037-2040 were the peak period for the construction of transmission trunk lines,13 and 11 lines were completed and put into operation.The UHV ±800 kV transmission technology will become the main technology for the construction of inter-regional transmission trunk lines,and the actual transmission capacity will reach 217 GW,which accounts for 68% of the total transmission capacity,UHV ±500 kV transmission technology still plays an important role in providing support for power transmission between closely regions.Third,in 2016-2040,China’s energy supply structure will changes.The proportion of thermal power installed capacity and power generation will fall to 39.4% and 48.9% respectively in 2040.Renewable power is developing rapidly,wind power and solar power have become the main force of China’s power production,and their installed capacity accounts for 21.9% and 19.5% respectively.Fourth,the Three-North area will become the main area for power production and supply.Wind power and solar power are distributed in the Three-North area,and hydropower is distributed in Central and the South.Nuclear power has also been developed on a large scale,concentrated in East,the South and the Central.Fifth,the power loss of blackouts does not inhibit the large-scale inter-regional transmission of electricity,but the power transmission flow shows a trend of reducing power transfer and avoiding high-blackouts areas.Sixth,the results under the three economic growth scenarios are highly consistent.Renewable power installed capacity and power generation can account for 53% and 37%;while inter-region power transmission capacity reaches 601(high speed),400(medium speed)and 295(low speed)GW.There are only quantitative differences brtwween the three scenarios,and no structural change,which reflects the validity and stability of the model. |
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