Evaluation And Optimization Of General Aviation Flight Plan Using Probabilistic Weather Information

General aviation covers many fields and has the characteristics of fast,flexible and efficient.These characteristics make the development of general aviation play a great role in promoting the development of economy and society.General aviation flights are usually carried out in the low altitude airspace,facing the threat of complex meteorological environment at low altitude and the extra cost of avoiding hazardous weather regions.The evaluation and optimization of flight plans based on weather forecast can not only improve the safety of flight plans,but also further reduce the cost and improve the flight efficiency.Since the weather forecast used in the planning stage is uncertain,it is difficult to adapt the complex and variable characteristics of meteorological environment when the weather forecast is regarded as deterministic factor.Therefore,in this thesis,the evaluation and optimization methods of general aviation flight plan using probabilistic weather information are studied to solve the problem of how to use the weather forecast in the form of probability to evaluate the flight plan and obtain optimal flight plans in the statistical sense.Firstly,the characteristics of probabilistic weather forecast and the distribution characteristics of hazardous weather regions in the airspace are analyzed.Based on the data characteristics and prediction accuracy of weather forecast,a grid-based spatial modeling method is proposed.At the same time,the evaluation index system of general aviation flight plan is summarized and the comprehensive evaluation model of general aviation flight plan is constructed based on probabilistic weather information.Then,based on the distribution characteristics of hazardous weather regions in the airspace given by ensemble prediction,an optimization method of general aviation flight plan using probabilistic weather information is proposed.According to the flight distance from the target point,the whole flight process is divided into several phases.The possible changes of flight plans are predicted by using the different distribution characteristics of hazardous weather regions and a set of flight plans with lower expected cost is obtained by optimization based on A* algorithm.Finally,considering the different distribution of hazardous weather regions in different range of altitudes,a flight plan optimization method based on probabilistic weather information in different range of altitudes is proposed.According to the distribution difference of hazardous weather regions in different altitudes,the decision network is generated.The planned path and flight cost of each phase in different altitudes are obtained by using A* algorithm.The flight plan with lower expected flight cost is finally optimized.