Airport Dynamic Capacity Assessment And Flight Research On Delay Early Warning

In the past several years,with the continuous growth of passenger traffic in civil aviation in China,the number of flights is rising,and the contradiction between the number of flights and the limited capacity is becoming increasingly prominent.As a result,flight delays have become the focus of attention.Therefore,it is particularly important to evaluate the dynamic capacity of airport airspace and put forward effective flight delay early warning methods.The main contents of this paper are as follows:1 ? In the analysis of flight delay early warning from the point of view of airport operation support,a flight delay early warning index framework based on "human,aircraft,loop and management" is proposed,and the weight is calculated by game theory.Considering the uncertainty of the delay early warning index,the set pair analysis theory is used to establish the flight delay early warning evaluation model,and the feasibility of the model is verified by simulation examples.2 ? Considering that the airport capacity is affected by many dynamic factors,the dynamic factors are regarded as evidence,and then introduced into the improved D-S evidence theory model to predict the dynamic capacity.The dynamic capacity of Wuhan Tianhe International Airport is verified.The results show that the model is effective and feasible.3?Because of the subjectivity in part determining the parameters of the indicators,a new delay early warning method is adopted,which converts the dynamic capacity predicted value above into the capacity predicted decline rate.A new delay early warning indicator framework is constructed with the predicted delay rate,the predicted delay time,the number of airlines affected and the number of passengers expected to be detained.Then,the matter-element model is applied to delay early warning,and the validity of the method is verified by data simulation of Wuhan Tianhe International Airport.This paper introduces matter-element model and set pair analysis theory into flight delay early warning,and improves D-S evidence theory by introducing the concept of evidence credibility into airport dynamic capacity assessment,which provides a new method and idea for airport dynamic capacity assessment and flight delay early warning.