Research On Debt Default Risk Of Private Listed Companies Under The Clash Of Default

The bond market is an important way of direct financing,China's bond market has become the third largest market in the world.Affected by factors such as the financial crisis,overcapacity and economic cooling,the “11 Chao RiZha” in 2014 substantially violated the contract,breaking the rigid redemption of the bond market.In 2018,enterprises concentrated on thunder,the amount of default exceeded 100 billion,private enterprises accounted for 70% of the default,15 listed companies defaulted,of which 12 were private enterprises.WINTIME Energy's debt default is a typical case of the 2018 default,which has hot issues such as listing,private,high leverage expansion and equity pledge risk.In this paper,we first sort out the literature from two aspects: academic research and case study of default.Secondly,a comprehensive review and combing of WINTIME Energy's basic situation and debt default events was conducted to design a case analysis framework.Then,it analyzes WINTIME Energy's debt default risk from four aspects: external environment,strategic transformation,financial status and information disclosure quality.The Z-score and KMV models were adopted in the risk measurement,and their applicability to the case was compared.Finally,the research is summarized and recommendations are made from both the issuer and the investor.The research findings in this paper: First,the factors that lead to bond default have both internal and external factors.The external factors include economic cooling,financing tightening and the decline of the power industry.The internal cause is that WINTIME Energy has implemented a transformational coal enterprise,coal-electricity integration and diversification strategy.The series of acquisitions,through the establishment of the growth-pledge linkage and the issuance of bonds to obtain funding needs.On the one hand,WINTIME Energy has pushed up its own debt scale.From 2011 to 2017,WINTIME Energy's debt scale has increased by 24 times,which has brought huge financial expenses.On the other hand,it has further consumed its own funds in the investment layout.The liquidity of assets was reduced.At the end of 2017,the liquidity gap was as high as 19.252 billion yuan,which eventually led to long-term high leverage and short-term gaps,which made it extremely dependent on the debtrepayment model.The coal industry was in a low tide period from the first half of 2012 to the first half of 2016,and the coal-electricity coordination was not strong.The profit of the power sector was squeezed and the gross profit margin of the petrochemical trade was low,which caused WINTIME Energy to increase its revenue.The huge period of time formed by mergers and acquisitions erodes profits and cash flow.Most bonds have cross-default clauses,which will break the company's funding arrangements and magnify the impact of this bond default.There are problems with the timeliness and authenticity of WINTIME Energy Information Disclosure,which will distort the judgment of investors on the risk of debt default.Second,The Z-score score shows that the financial status of WINTIME Energy from 2011 to 2017 is worrying,but the model does not consider the impact of financing cash flow.As the external financing environment tightens,the prediction effect of the model will be more significant.The timeliness and dynamics of the KMV model are better than the Z-score model.At the same time,due to the imperfect market(inside information),the stock price will fall before the default,which will lead to dramatic changes in KMV.Before WINTIME Energy defaulted,the default probability reached 8.5%,which was much higher than the default probability reflected by the credit subject AA+.