| The new round of power system reform has made the power-sale-side reform a key task.With the liberalization of the power-selling side,the power-selling side market is increasingly active,and the number of electricity retailers is rising.With the continuous deepening of reforms and the economic development of China,electircity retailers will face unprecedented opportunities.With the accelerating pace of China’s power market reform,the construction of the power spot market has been put on the agenda.Fluctuating spot prices and market load in the spot market have brought greater risks to the selling companies.The electircity retailers should make preparations to avoid the risks in the spot market through spot market electricity price forecasting and load forecasting.At the same time,formulate a scientific and rational purchase and sale strategy to obtain the maximum economic benefits,seize market opportunities and reform dividends.This paper discusses the necessity of the power spot market and the impact of the spot market on the sales companies.The contractual forms in the open electricity market,the centralized spot market and the power finance derivatives,and the risks behind the contracts are studied for sale.The electric company provides a theoretical basis for formulating a reasonable purchase and sale strategy.Considering that the sales company’s decision to buy and sell electricity in the spot market faces two uncertainties – spot price and market load,this paper forecasts the spot price and market load.Considering the jump and spike characteristics of spot price,based on the GARCH model,the GARCH-jump model was established to simulate the characteristics of spot market electricity price.The power purchase company’s power purchase decision and its power sales decision are mutually influential.In a competitive power market,power sales companies are facing the influence of competitors.Its power sales decision will affect the number of purchased electricity by affecting the user’s choice behavior.Therefore,this paper establishes a combined optimization model of the electricity purchase combination and the electricity sales price,and uses a market share function to quantify the influence of other competitors.Finally,taking into account the purchase and sale risk of the electricity sales company,CVaR is used to measure the market risk and establish a risk-return model.Finally,the risk of various types of electricity purchase methods is analyzed by numerical examples.The conclusions show that if the electricity sales company only purchases electricity through the spot market,it will face great risks.The bilateral contracts,option contracts,and the integration of sales can effectively Risk avoidance,and the combination of various types of contracts is the best.For market designers,the types of transactions and types of contracts in the market should be enriched to help market participants avoid risks. |
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