Development Of High-Speed Rail,Analyst Forecast And Capital Market Efficiency

The opening of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in 2008 marks China's entry into the era of "high-speed railway".The shortening of "economic distance" and "time distance" between cities promotes the transmission of information between regions and regions,and helps to alleviate information asymmetry and improve social efficiency.This paper takes A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2017 as the research sample,and uses the difference in difference model to make an empirical analysis,trying to verify whether the improvement of transportation is conducive to the improvement of capital market efficiency after the operation of high-speed rail,and to find out the transmission mechanism that affects the efficiency of capital market after the operation of high-speed rail.Empirical research results show that the operation of high-speed rail is indeed conducive to improving the accuracy of analysts' forecasts.Seller analysts' information to the capital market is more accurate,alleviating the information asymmetry in the capital market,thereby improving the efficiency of the capital market.Furthermore,it is found that this promotion effect is more obvious in listed companies with more decentralized operation.In the process of searching for transmission mechanism,it is found that the internal control quality of listed companies has been improved and the quality of information disclosure has been improved after the operation of high-speed railway,which helps analysts obtain more accurate and effective information in time and reduces the difficulty of earnings forecast.Combining with previous studies,this may be due to two reasons: on the one hand,for listed companies,the opening of high-speed rail facilitates the supervision of subsidiaries by headquarters,makes it more convenient for financial information to be collected within the enterprise,and is conducive to the improvement of internal control and information disclosure quality of the company;on the other hand,from the perspective of analysts,after the opening of high-speed rail,it will be easier for them to collect financial information within the enterprise.It facilitates the field research of the headquarters and important subsidiaries of listed companies by analysts,and obtains more accurate and effective information in time.The innovations of this paper are as follows: Firstly,there are not many papers on high-speed rail in China at present.This paper hopes to enrich the research in this field by discussing the relationship between high-speed rail development and capital market efficiency.Secondly,some scholars have found that high-speed rail facilitates the research of analysts after its opening and operation,thereby enhancing information transmission and improving capital market efficiency.This paper focuses more on listed companies.In terms of factors,after the opening of high-speed rail,the quality of internal control and information disclosure of listed companies have been improved,which makes the information on which analysts' earnings forecast depends more accurate and effective,and provides a new transmission path for how high-speed rail affects the efficiency of capital market.Finally,it proves that analysts,as financial intermediaries in capital market,have their professional advantages and trust in the process of information transmission.Interest advantage plays an important role.