Research On Prediction And Safety Assessment Of Expressway Lane Change Conflict

In recent years,with the increase of the number of vehicles on the road,the number of traffic accidents is also increasing.The increasingly severe road traffic situation poses a serious threat to the lives and property of the general public.As one of the basic driving behaviors,lane-changing behavior plays an important role in daily driving.The success of lane-changing process is directly related to the safety of lane-changing vehicles and surrounding vehicles.Therefore,in recent years,the research on vehicle lane-changing has gradually become a hot topic in the field of transportation.Based on traffic conflict technology,this paper analyses the conflict characteristics between lane-changing vehicles and surrounding vehicles in the process of lane-changing,and explores the effective safety evaluation of lane-changing process,which is of great significance for understanding the mechanism of lane-changing behavior and ensuring road traffic safety.Firstly,this paper puts forward the research direction according to the increasingly severe traffic accident situation,and then combs and analyses the research status of vehicle lanechanging and traffic conflict technology at home and abroad,systematically expounds the definition and types of lane-changing behavior,as well as the related concepts and classifications of traffic conflict.On this basis,the characteristics of traffic conflict between lane-changing vehicles and surrounding vehicles in the process of vehicle lane-changing are analyzed and given,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following research.Secondly,NGSIM data of the United States are selected and tracker software is used to extract and process the lane-changing data.TTC,speed,acceleration and other conflict-related parameters and indicators are obtained during lane-changing by tracker software.According to the characteristics of lane-changing conflict data,Logistic regression model is selected to establish lane-changing conflict prediction model.The traffic conflict of lane-changing vehicles in the model is simulated by using MATLAB software,and the simulation results and errors are compared and analyzed.Finally,on the basis of lane-changing conflict,and the common fault tree method of risk theory is used to evaluate the Safety of traffic conflict between lane-changing process and surrounding vehicles.Then,the evaluation results are compared with the existing evaluation methods.The results show that the new evaluation method is more refine,and the evaluation index to obtain more easily,calculation is more convenient.