| In recent years,the social and economic development of the Yangtze River Basin has been rapid developed,the freight volume of the Yangtze River waterway has increased rapidly,and the demand for ship transportation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has also been growing.The contradiction between the control of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the lack of capacity of the Three Gorges ship locks and the growing demand fo r ship transportation has gradually emerged.How to more accurately assess the ship transportation demand,optimize the ship transportation organization,and how to make the ship transportation system.The development of maximum efficiency is an urgent problem for the port waterway department.In order to cope with the increasing waterway freight volume and frequent ship congestion problems in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,this paper discusses the current situation of ship transportation organizat ion in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Firstly,it analyzes the waterway conditions of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the navigation channel.The Yangtze River trunk channel ranks upstream and low downstream,while the upstream society Economic development has gradually evolved from the export of goods to absorption;the important port groups such as Chongqing,Zhangzhou and Yibin have developed rapidly but the competitiveness of water transport has not increased significantly.The characteristics of the ship transportation organization system are mainly analyzed from five aspects: port and navigation channel,transportation ship type,ship flow and cargo structure.These factors jointly determine the scale and efficiency of the ship tran sportation organization system.By analyzing the current situation of socio-economic and comprehensive transportation development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and testing the correlation between social economy,transportation system and ship transportation,on this basis,a water demand forecast model based on economic demand is established to predict the water transport volume in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The development of ship type and ship flow in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are predicted,which lays a theoretical foundation and data basis for the establishment of the ship transportation organization optimization model.This chapter establishes the mathematical optimization model to optimize the optimal transportation mode and ship type,evaluates the operational performance of the ship type by cost factors,and makes the ship organization plan with the minimum objective function is the optimal plan during the research period.The case calculation and analysis were carried out by container ship and dry bulk carrier respectively.The optimization results of ship type and the optimization of organization mode were calculated,and the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the optimization results were carried out.Apply the analysis results of the above chapters and the established optimization model to the upstream organization of the Yangtze River to demonstrate the ship transportation organization plan.Combined with ship type scale analysis and ship type economic benefit d emonstration on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,the recommended transportation organization and ship type plan are analyzed. |
